\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 105 Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) )
In March 11th, the company announced that the COVID-19 antigen test kit was approved for sale. It can be used to detect the N antigen and S antigen of COVID-19 virus infection in suspected throat swabs and nasopharyngeal swabs. It can be used as an auxiliary and supplement for nucleic acid detection, and further improve the ability of early detection with New Coronavirus detection strategy.
On March 11, the National Health Commission released the covid-19 antigen application scheme (Trial), and the demand for related products is expected to achieve explosive growth. As the current epidemic situation in China is relatively severe, sporadic outbreaks occur in many places in a short time, and the antigen detection kit is convenient, fast and can be used for self inspection, the state issued covid-19 antigen application scheme as an effective auxiliary and supplement to nucleic acid detection. At present, the antigen kit approved in China is still the professional version of antigen detection, but today, the health commission also issued a document to clarify the use process and purchase channels of home self-test. Therefore, we expect that the approval of home self-test version of antigen will be implemented quickly in the future (the products of professional version and self-test version are basically the same), and the demand for related products is expected to achieve explosive growth.
At present, the competition pattern of antigen reagents is good, which is expected to bring considerable profit elasticity. As of March 11, 2022, covid-19 antigen reagents of five enterprises in China have been approved, namely Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , jinwofu biology, Huada Yinyuan, huaketai biology and Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) . The competition pattern is good. The liberalization of this application scheme will directly benefit enterprises with self-produced raw materials and sufficient production capacity. Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) as the leading enterprise of antibody antigen reagents, This is expected to benefit fully. In the short term, we expect covid-19 antigen detection to be piloted in the eastern region. Under the condition of short supply of production capacity and good competition pattern, we assume that the ex factory price of the product is 6-10 yuan / person, and the median value is 30% based on the penetration range of 10% – 50%, so the market space of covid-19 antigen detection in China is 8.06-13.44 billion yuan per month. (for specific calculation, please refer to the report “one week talk in the pharmaceutical industry: covid-19 antigen detection wind has come, giving birth to 10 billion detection demand per month”)
The industrial chain is independent and controllable, and the end products are becoming more and more abundant Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) as a leading company of molecular scientific research reagents, it can independently develop and produce covid-19 detection kit and other related biological reagent raw materials, which has the advantages of cost and scale. The approval of covid-19 antigen detection kit not only further enriches the company’s covid-19 related terminal detection product series, but also improves the company’s overall competitive level.
Investment suggestion: as the leader of molecular research reagents in China, with the gradual improvement of terminal product series and the gradual promotion of global layout, the future performance growth of the company is certain. The profit increment brought by covid-19 nucleic acid raw materials and antibody antigen reagents is superimposed, and the investment value is significant. We expect the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.86423362673 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 678807/961 million, corresponding to PE multiple of 63 ×/ fifty-three ×/ forty-four ×。 Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic risk; Risk that the volume is less than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern
