The price rise of lunni has impacted Qingshan group and is optimistic about the iron lithium leader in the short term
In the past two days, the metal nickel market fluctuated. LME nickel rose by more than 110% in a single day and rose 66.4% at the close. Affected by the Russian Ukrainian war, the western economic sanctions against Russia may affect the overseas nickel supply, and the market is worried about the collapse of the supply and demand structure of metal nickel. Castle Peak Group had been bearish on the price of metal nickel, and international financial forces opened a large number of positions to push Castle Peak Group. Castle Peak Group is facing an arduous test. Affected by the external market, the price of nickel in China has also increased significantly. At the same time, the price of other cathode materials has also increased by different ranges. The cost pressure of downstream precursors and cathode manufacturers has increased, and the enterprises deeply bound with Qingshan group have been affected to a certain extent. This round of metal nickel rise highlights the cost advantage of iron lithium, which will benefit iron lithium in the short term and benefit the target Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.Ltd(002125) etc; In the medium and long term, Russian nickel is still implementing some long orders in Europe. Even if its export to Europe is blocked in the future, Russian nickel also has a response plan to turn to the Chinese market, and the overall supply and demand structure will not be disturbed. If the Russian Ukrainian war ends in the short term, the nickel price is expected to return to the normal level in a certain period of time.
The supply of nickel is sufficient in the medium and long term, and the price of metal nickel shows a downward trend
Since 2009, the global annual nickel production has increased significantly. Although the growth rate has declined in recent years, the total amount still shows an upward trend. In 2021, the output of nickel ore in Russia was 250000 tons, accounting for 9.26% of the total global output, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.02%; At the same time, Indonesia’s share has increased significantly, with an output of 1 million tons in 2021, accounting for 37.04% of the world, and has become the world’s largest nickel producer. In terms of overall supply, even if the output expansion of Russian nickel is blocked under sanctions, Indonesia’s long-term volume is very considerable, which can make up for the impact of the decline of Russian nickel output.
In China, the main trade between China and Russia is refined nickel. Russia is one of the main sources of refined nickel in China. In December 2021, it accounted for 17.53% of China’s total imports of refined nickel and alloy, but at the same time, Australia’s import share surged, surpassing Russia to 48.63%. Therefore, China’s overall nickel supply pattern is stable, It is expected that there will be no extreme situation in the medium and long term. As the main cause of this price fluctuation, the Russian Ukrainian war is not expected to last long. The short-term market is dominated by irrationality, and the price trend is difficult to judge. However, the high nickel price is difficult to sustain, and it will fall back to the normal level in the medium and long term.
Optimistic about the prospect of high nickel, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , etc
Compared with iron lithium battery, ternary battery has higher energy density and strong endurance. In recent years, the market share of high nickel ternary is increasing, and the trend of high nickel ternary has gradually become clear. In 2022, we are optimistic that the ternary market will maintain a good development trend. The main reasons are as follows: (1) 4680 pulling effect: Overseas Tesla 4680 batteries will be loaded soon, the large volume of 4680 will drive the increase of demand for high nickel cathode, and the gradual application of 9-series new technologies; (2) Economic improvement of ternary battery: before being affected by nickel price, the price increase of ternary cell (0.84 yuan / wh, this year + 6.33%) in 2022 was lower than that of iron lithium battery (0.74 yuan / wh, this year + 16.54%). The price difference between ternary and iron lithium is only 0.1 yuan / wh, which is smaller than the common price difference of 0.18 yuan / wh in 2021, and the economy of ternary battery is improved Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) as the leader of high nickel cathode, has been affected to some extent in the metal market shock, and the short-term fluctuation does not change the long-term trend. At present, the company has a certain inventory of raw materials. In the short term, the profit per ton will not be affected by the rise of nickel price, and even harvest the positive benefits of inventory in the short term. Benefiting from the strong overseas ternary demand, Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) overseas customers (SK and LG) have sufficient orders, and overseas shipments and overseas proportion are expected to continue to increase.
Risk tip: the high nickel price continues to exceed expectations, the cooperative enterprise is seriously damaged, and the ternary demand is less than expected
