Core view
Operation analysis of transportation industry: in January 2022, the passenger transport market recovered slowly and the freight market was generally stable. Railway: the railway passenger flow in January was – 37% compared with the same period before the epidemic. Highway: the passenger flow of Commercial Highway in January was – 28.94% year-on-year. Waterway: the price of bulk transportation continues to be adjusted, and the price of centralized transportation remains at a high level. Aviation: the passenger flow of civil aviation in January was – 2.2%, and the high boom of air cargo market continued. Logistics: the express business volume in January was + 3.24% year-on-year, and CR8 was 81.9. New business type: the online car Hailing orders in January were 704 million, and the travel demand in the city recovered before the festival.
Under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and European and American countries close their airspace to each other and further reduce the international air cargo capacity, and the air cargo price will rise. In 2022, the covid-19 mutant strain Omicron appeared, and the epidemic situation outside China was disturbed repeatedly. Superimposed on the Civil Aviation Administration’s call to stop “changing passengers to goods”, the passenger cabin is not allowed to load non epidemic prevention goods, and the tight supply of air cargo capacity continues. Superimposed on the impact of the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and Western countries have closed their airspace one after another, resulting in the need for airlines of some western countries to bypass flights or cancel routes from the Asia Pacific to Europe, so as to further reduce the supply of air cargo capacity. At the same time, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in oil prices and an increase in Airlines’ operating costs. In the short term, air cargo prices may show an upward trend. In the long run, the import and export logistics demand of cross-border e-commerce, global high-quality food and high-end manufacturing products is growing steadily, and the aviation logistics demand with high timeliness has long-term growth. Strategically recommend the international aviation logistics track, and recommend the key targets of the aviation logistics track Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) ( Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) . SH), Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) ( Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) . SH), Sinotrans Limited(601598) ( Sinotrans Limited(601598) . SH).
Dynamically grasp the opportunity to reverse the plight of the air travel sector. The new progress of covid-19 specific drugs continues to enhance the expectation of border opening around the world. From 2022, the probability of travel sector will usher in a trend recovery trend. However, the recovery process of China’s international routes is uncertain. The optimistic scenario assumes that it will take at least two years before the international routes resume the epidemic. Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in oil prices and a sharp increase in airline costs. In the future, if the situation in Russia and Ukraine shows signs of easing, it is suggested to pay short-term attention to the recovery expectation of international lines, enhance the systematic opportunities of the aviation industry brought by the return of superimposed oil prices, and pay long-term attention to the leader of subdivided air travel market. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Air China Limited(601111) ( Air China Limited(601111) . SH), which accounts for a large proportion of international business, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ( Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) . SH), which relies on inbound and outbound passenger flow to carry out tax-free business, low-cost airlines Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ( Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) . SH) and regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) ( China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) . SZ).
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated, travel demand is less than expected, freight rates fall sharply, cross-border logistics demand is less than expected, changes in international trade situation, changes in policies and regulations, etc.
