Events
The latest quotation of lithium carbonate is more than 500000 yuan / ton. In the early morning of March 7, LME nickel was pulled to USD 55000 / ton, with a single day increase of 75%. On March 8, the price continued to rise by 66% to 80000.
In order to cope with the price rise of upstream raw materials, Tesla took the lead in raising the price in early 2022. Model3 and modely increased by 10000 yuan and 21000 yuan respectively. Then Xiaopeng announced that P7 increased by 4 Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) 0 yuan, Byd Company Limited(002594) also announced that the price of Dynasty and Ocean series new energy vehicles increased by 1 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan from February 1. On March 1, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW Volkswagen announced a price rise of 5400 yuan, Since this year, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases.
Key investment points
High demand in the downstream + tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the price of raw materials in the upstream soared. The downstream demand for electric vehicles is increasing rapidly, and there is a shortage of raw materials in the upstream. The Russian Ukrainian industrial chain affects the supply chain, and global bulk commodities soar. At present, the price of lithium carbonate, a raw material related to electric vehicles, has exceeded 500000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 87% this year. The price of Lun aluminum has exceeded 23000, which is close to the previous high. LME nickel has been pulled to 80000 US dollars, Since the beginning of the year, it has increased by more than 300%. Although it is said that this is an international mining giant’s accurate sniping at a private enterprise in Zhejiang, which is divorced from the fundamentals in the short term, the continuous record high prices of lithium and nickel have brought great uncertainty to the market. From the perspective of the supply chain of Russia and Ukraine, Rusal accounts for 6% of the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and Russian nickel ore accounts for 9% of the world. Russia is a major producer and exporter of bulk commodities. Changes in the current situation in Russia and Ukraine are bound to bring substantial fluctuations in the price of raw materials. We can continue to track the changes in relevant prices.
Since the beginning of the year, car companies have raised prices one after another, with limited medium and long-term impact. Since the beginning of the year, the prices of new energy vehicles, whether new forces, Tesla, joint ventures or domestic vehicles, have been rising. The reasons for the price rise include the rise of raw material prices, the decline of new energy subsidies, the rise of premiums, the rise of chips, etc. last year, although the price of lithium carbonate was also rising sharply after August, it was the peak sales season after September, and impulse vehicle enterprises did not dare to raise prices at the end of the year, Therefore, the price increase is basically concentrated at the beginning of this year. After several years of market cultivation, consumers’ acceptance of new energy vehicles has gradually increased, which is also a foundation for car enterprises to raise prices. In addition, selling cars at a loss is unsustainable for a long time, so the price increase is inevitable. Short-term sales may have a certain impact, but as consumers fully accept the price increase, It is expected to have a limited impact on future sales
Investment suggestion: the trend of global electrification is irreversible, and there is a large disturbance in the short term. We can continue to pay attention to enterprises that have certain control over upstream raw materials.
Risk factors: the sales volume of electric vehicles does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; Policy uncertainty of new energy vehicle industry.
