Key investment points
The proportion of renewable energy has increased, and subsequent development depends on energy storage. The global wind power generation increased from 5.2% in 2016 to 9.6% in 2020 and is expected to reach 16.5% in 2025. The peak and valley power generation of renewable energy power generation changes greatly and is difficult to control. With the increase of the proportion of wind and solar power generation, the impact on the power grid will become greater, and the requirements for the power grid in terms of transmission, distribution, regulation and control will be higher. The global penetration of new energy power generation is the general trend, and the development of new energy creates the demand for energy storage. There are various application scenarios of energy storage: in addition to improving the power grid and transmission technology, the development of energy storage technology is essential. The application scenarios of energy storage include: 1) on the power generation side, for the power generation projects supporting new energy storage, certain preference can be given in terms of competitive configuration, project approval, grid connection timing, system scheduling, guaranteed hour utilization, etc; 2) On the user side, explore and innovate various "energy storage + application scenarios" and explore a variety of business models; 3) On the grid side, promote the rational layout of energy storage, establish an independent electricity price mechanism on the grid side, and improve the proportion of distribution and storage of wind and solar power stations.
Energy storage is expected to have 20 times growth space in ten years, and the industry is expected to maintain high growth. According to cnesa's conservative prediction, the cumulative installed capacity in 2021 will be 5790.8mw, and the cumulative scale of electrochemical energy storage will have a compound growth rate of 57.4% from 2021 to 2025, showing a steady growth trend in the market; Under the optimistic scenario, the cumulative market scale in 2021 will reach 6614.8mw, reaching a new high. The cumulative scale in 2024 and 2025 will reach 32.7gw and 55.9gw respectively, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 84.5%. According to the latest report of global energy storage outlook released by Bloomberg new energy finance, the global online large-scale energy storage capacity at the end of 2020 is 17gw, and US $262 billion has been invested in 345gw energy storage devices under construction. By 2030, the cumulative installed capacity will reach 358gw, more than 20 times that of 16.5gw in 2020. China and the United States are the two largest markets, accounting for more than half of the world's cumulative installed capacity in 2030.
The energy storage industry chain covers the whole links of equipment, installation and operation. Batteries and PCs are the core parts of energy storage. The energy storage industry chain mainly includes upstream equipment manufacturers, midstream system integration and installation, and downstream end customers. The equipment includes battery, BMS, EMS, PCs and other parts. The battery is the core part, accounting for 67% of the cost; BMS is mainly responsible for battery monitoring, and the cost accounts for 9%; EMS main data acquisition; PCs is an energy storage converter, which is mainly responsible for controlling the charge and discharge of the battery and converting DC and AC, with a cost of about 10%; The midstream includes equipment manufacturers and professional manufacturers; Downstream includes wind power plants, distributed, power grids, communication operators and other end customers.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to grasp the main line from three aspects: first, pay attention to lithium battery manufacturers: power batteries and energy storage batteries are of the same origin. With the expansion of production of leading manufacturers, the cost is expected to decline rapidly. Energy storage batteries are pure incremental business for power battery manufacturers, and pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) leading battery manufacturers; Second, focus on energy storage converter manufacturers: lithium batteries and converters with the highest cost share are expected to witness rapid growth. Photovoltaic inverter and energy storage converter manufacturers are converging. You can focus on leading PCs manufacturers such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; Third, pay attention to the leading global household energy storage enterprise Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) : Overseas household energy storage demand is strong, and the company has the first mover advantage of customers and channels.
Risk factors: the installed capacity of energy storage does not meet the expectation; Industry competition intensifies; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The energy storage industry policy did not meet expectations.
