Events
On March 10, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center issued a notice on publicizing the proposed winning / alternative results of centralized procurement of diclofenac and other drugs of Guangdong Alliance (the first batch).
Commentary
The selection price and alternative price of growth hormone powder injection change moderately, and the price system of water injection is expected to stabilize. The quotation of growth hormone for injection (lyophilized powder injection) takes 6iu as the representative product specification, and the proposed alternative price of 3 Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) iu is 72 yuan; Kinsay pharmaceutical's 2.5iu proposed winning price is 21 yuan; The proposed winning price of joint sell 6iu is 61 yuan; The price of unnamed Haiji 8iu to be selected is 88 yuan. Referring to the historical bid price data of growth hormone alliance in Guangdong, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xinjiang production and Construction Corps and other regions (the data comes from the medicine cube), the price change of powder injection is relatively mild compared with the price change of the previous Sixth Batch of national drug centralized insulin collection.
No manufacturer of recombinant human growth hormone injection has announced the proposed winning price and proposed alternative price, and the price system is expected to remain stable.
The reported quantity of powder injection and water injection is in good condition. According to the statistics of registration information previously published by Guangdong Drug Trading Center, the registered manufacturers of growth hormone for injection (lyophilized powder injection) include Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , Kinsey pharmaceutical, United cel and Weiming Haiji, which are all listed in the purchase order a. the pre purchase volume of public medical institutions of each enterprise in the first year of the purchase period is 802200 pieces (converted into 6iu representative specification), accounting for about 99%, Among them, the pre procurement volume of Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) in the first year was 438700, accounting for 54%, and the pre procurement volume of kinsay pharmaceutical in the first year was 215000, accounting for 27%.
Novo Nordisk is one of the registered manufacturers of recombinant human growth hormone injection. The declared specifications include 5mg, 10mg and 15mg, of which 5mg is the price declared product specification. The pre purchase volume of Novo Nordisk public medical institutions in the first year is 6575, accounting for 0.8%.
The growth hormone market in China has huge growth space, and the expansion of indications and the upgrading of dosage forms have laid the foundation for medium and long-term high growth. According to Sullivan data, in 2018, only 3.7% of GHD patients in China were receiving short-term treatment with growth hormone. Compared with more than 10 approved indications in Europe, America and other developed countries, there is still much room for the approved indications of growth hormone in China. According to Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) investor exchange documents, the company is actively expanding the market in the field of adult indications and has made substantial breakthroughs. In addition, the long-acting dosage form of growth hormone can greatly improve patient compliance, and the promotion is expected to be further strengthened in the future. The industry still has huge growth space, and the ceiling is far from being reached.
Policy uncertainty is gradually eliminated, and the sector valuation is expected to be repaired. Recalling the time line of centralized procurement of Guangdong alliance, in September 21, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center issued a notice on Soliciting Opinions on the purchase document with volume of 153 pharmaceutical groups such as diclofenac of Guangdong Alliance (Exposure Draft), which included growth hormone, putting pressure on the valuation of the sector. In January, 22, Guangdong issued the notice on the centralized procurement document of diclofenac and other drugs of Guangdong alliance. According to the disclosure of the previous online training meeting on the centralized purchase of drugs such as diclofenac in Guangdong, it is expected that the work flow of the follow-up alliance centralized purchase is to determine the quantity, confirm the purchase quantity and announce the implementation. Subsequently, with the announcement of the quotation of Guangdong centralized procurement, the policy uncertainty of the growth hormone industry is gradually eliminated, which is expected to drive the upward repair of the sector valuation. At present, the industry valuation has high cost performance, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , 30 Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) years' PE is 12x and 22x respectively. It is suggested to focus on.
Investment advice
We maintain the "buy" rating in the industry and suggest paying attention to leading companies in different dosage forms, Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) etc.
Risk tips
New patients did not meet expectations; The expansion of indications is less than expected; Market promotion is not as expected; Intensified market competition; The scope of centralized purchase and the range of price reduction exceeded expectations; Drug safety and risk of negative media reports.
