Key investment points:
The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points. In the current period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC) industry fell by 3.90%; The CSI 300 index fell 4.22%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry outperformed the benchmark index by 0.32 percentage points. Among the 30 secondary industries of CITIC, the increase of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week ranked 11th. From the perspective of the fine molecular industry of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the aquaculture sector increased the most this week, closing up 2.91%; Pet food fell the most, down 9.42%; From the perspective of valuation, the price earnings ratio of seed industry and pet food sector with good growth under the policy expectation is high.
Pig breeding: Pig enterprises are caught in double-sided extrusion, and pay attention to the degree of de production capacity of the industry. As of Thursday, the national pig (foreign three yuan) price was 12.15 yuan / kg, down 0.16 yuan / kg from last Thursday. At present, the price of pig breeding fertilizer has been raised at least three times during the year, which has been at an all-time high. However, the feed belongs to the cost plus model, and the possibility of further price increase during the year cannot be ruled out. Previously, the price ratio of pig to grain has fallen below 5:1, and the feed price has been raised again. The pig breeding industry has fallen into the double-sided squeeze of falling pig prices and rising raw material prices. The first half of 2022 is destined to be a more difficult “cold winter” for the industry. On the other hand, in March 2022, the national development and Reform Commission launched the first and second rounds of frozen pork collection and storage in 2022, with a total of 78000 tons. The central collection and storage is difficult to change the trend of pig price, but it can boost market confidence to a certain extent and form the bottom range of pig price. Pig prices essentially depend on the relationship between supply and demand in the market. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the degree of capacity removal of the industry before the inflection point of the cycle. Relevant listed companies include Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ( Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ) and Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ( Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ).
Seed industry: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices are rising, and the prosperity of the industry is improving. Under the catalysis of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose in an all-round way, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of soybean meal and wheat reached a 14 year high. The problem of food security became more and more prominent, which further stimulated the improvement of the planting industry chain. In the “No. 1 document” of 2022, it is mentioned to improve the unit yield level of grain. At present, there is still a large gap between the unit yield level of corn, soybean and other crops in China and the developed countries in the world. Under the goal of realizing the scientific and technological self-reliance of the seed industry, ensuring national food security and improving the unit yield level of grain, promoting the implementation of biological breeding technology has become an inevitable development trend. The “new seed law” passed by China will be implemented from March 1, 2022, which is conducive to strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry and encouraging the innovation and breakthrough of breeding technology in the industry. If the relevant systems of “Document No. 1” are introduced smoothly, it will be of great significance to the seed industry enterprises that have obtained the genetically modified safety certificate in the early stage. Relevant listed companies include Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ), Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ), Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ( Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ).
Risk tip: pig prices fluctuate sharply; Grain prices fluctuated sharply; Outbreak of African swine fever; Food safety issues; The commercialization of biological breeding in China is less than expected.
