Key points:
Last week, only photovoltaic materials rose, while lithium materials and magnetic materials fell significantly. Last week, the valuation of photovoltaic sector (price earnings ratio TTM) continued to rise, and other sectors fell
In addition to the slight rise in the photovoltaic material sector last week, the rest of the industry fell to varying degrees. Among them, the photovoltaic materials sector rose 0.73% in one week, outperforming the benchmark (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) by 2.41 percentage points. Lithium battery materials and magnetic materials fell sharply this week, down 11.92% and 8.29% respectively, 10.24 percentage points and 6.6 percentage points lower than the benchmark respectively. Last week, only the valuation level of photovoltaic sector (price earnings ratio TTM) continued to rise by 1.5x to 55x, while the valuation level of other magnetic materials, carbon fiber, lithium battery materials, semiconductor materials and panel materials (price earnings ratio TTM) fell by 2.8x, 6.1x, 6.4x, 2.3x and 0.7x to 40.1x, 51.8x, 58x, 63.4x and 22.6x respectively. In terms of historical quantile, last week, carbon fiber, panel materials, magnetic materials, semiconductor materials, lithium battery materials and photovoltaic materials were at 20.8%, 0.1%, 54.7%, 52.9%, 64.3% and 69.4% of the long-term valuation level respectively.
The price quotation of praseodymium and neodymium was strong, and the weekly average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry rebounded. The price of heavy rare earth dysprosium decreased slightly, and the price of terbium decreased slightly. Cobalt prices remain strong, ferroboron and ferroniobium alloys are stable, and gallium prices continue to rise. The cost of rare earth raw materials is strongly supported, and the price of sintered Nd-Fe-B magnetic blank is stable
Praseodymium and neodymium: the low price of praseodymium and neodymium was tightened last week. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China was 1.103 million yuan / ton, up 0.27% on a weekly basis; The average price of praseodymium and neodymium was 1.365 million yuan / ton, up 0.15% on a weekly basis. Last week, the atmosphere of the oxide market was OK. At the beginning of the week, the low-cost shipment was tightened, the actual transaction price was up, the corresponding metal shipment of the metal factory was not smooth, and the subsequent inquiry and purchase slowed down. The quotation of the metal factory is firm after going up, the supply of low-cost goods is reduced, the capital pressure of the downstream magnetic material enterprises is large, the acceptance of high-priced goods is not high, a small number of transactions are made, and the upstream and downstream enterprises are deadlocked in the game. On the supply side, the production of waste recycling enterprises has increased, and the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased. Last week, the output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 1467 tons, with a slight increase of 0.14% on a weekly basis; The output of metal praseodymium and neodymium was 1347 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis. After the market price tightened, the follow-up of downstream procurement slowed down and the trading volume was small, resulting in an increase in inventory. Last week, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide factory was 3506 tons, an increase of 2.01% on a weekly basis; The inventory of praseodymium neodymium metal factory was 1690 tons, with a week on month increase of 4.32%. Last week, the average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium oxide industry increased by 6.18% to 93200 yuan / ton, and the average gross profit of praseodymium and neodymium metal industry fell by 0.78% to 23100 yuan / ton.
Heavy rare earth: dysprosium price decreased slightly last week, and the market inquiry order is general, but the quotation of large manufacturers is strong. The magnetic material factory just needs to purchase dysprosium iron, and there are few actual transactions. The national average price of dysprosium oxide was 3110 yuan / kg, down 0.64% on a weekly basis; The average price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 3110 yuan / kg, down 0.64% on a weekly basis. Terbium oxide has tight spot market, high spot concentration, firm merchant quotation and weak willingness to ship at low price. The national average price of terbium oxide is 15170 yuan / kg, down 0.52% on a weekly basis; The average price of metal terbium was 19170 yuan / kg, down 0.16% on a weekly basis. Last week, the average price of gadolinium ferroalloy in China was 650000 yuan / ton, down 0.76% on a weekly basis; The average price of holmium ferroalloy in China was 1.955 million yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis.
Other raw materials: LME cobalt futures rose 2.43% to US $75800 / ton on a weekly basis, and the spot price of Yangtze nonferrous cobalt was 552000 yuan / ton, up 0.36% on a weekly basis. The price of ferroboron (18%) was stable, and the price of metal gallium (99.99%) increased by 2.11% to 2425 yuan / kg. The price of ferroniobium (60-a) in China remained stable at 268500 yuan / ton.
Sintered Nd-Fe-B: the price of Nd-Fe-B was stable last week, the high price of rare earth metals in the upstream was strong, and the cost side support was acceptable. The national average prices of rough sintered NdFeB N35 and H35 were 297.5 yuan / kg and 365.5 yuan / kg respectively, which were flat on a weekly basis.
The raw materials of positive electrode cobalt continued to be strong, the price of nickel sulfate increased significantly, and the prices of lithium source and positive electrode materials continued to rise sharply. Lithium hexafluorophosphate in electrolyte fell sharply, DMC continued to fall, and the high price of electrolyte remained stable. The negative electrode material and diaphragm shall be kept stable. The price of copper foil is temporarily stable, and the subsequent rise of processing fees is expected to be strong
Cathode material: last Wednesday, battery grade electrolytic cobalt at the cathode raw material end increased by 0.55% to 551000 yuan / ton, cobalt sulfate increased by 1.79% to 113500 yuan / ton, nickel sulfate increased by 13.7% to 41500 yuan / ton, and manganese sulfate increased by 2% to 10200 yuan / ton. The prices of ternary precursors ncm111, ncm523 and ncm622 increased by 1.38%, 1.4% and 2.12% week on week, respectively. The price of lithium source continued to rise sharply, among which the prices of battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were 495000 yuan / ton and 453500 yuan / ton respectively, with a weekly increase of 6.68% and 9.15% respectively. The prices of ternary cathode materials ncm523 and ncm622 increased by 5.95% and 2.46% on a weekly basis respectively; The price of precursor iron orthophosphate was flat at 23500 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode increased by 2.5% to 164000 yuan / ton.
Electrolyte: last Saturday, lithium fluorophosphate fell 6.78% to 550000 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The average ex factory price of DMC Chinese manufacturers continued to fall, with a sharp drop of 11.76% to 6000 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The prices of various electrolytes remained high and flat.
Negative electrode material: the prices of domestic middle-end artificial and natural graphite were 51500 yuan / ton and 38500 yuan / ton respectively, which were flat on a weekly basis.
Diaphragm: the price of mainstream diaphragm products in China remained stable last week. The diaphragm output was 180.12 million square meters, with an increase of 2.83% in the cycle to cycle ratio; The operating rate of the industry was 67.73%, with an increase of 2.82 percentage points on a weekly basis. The inventory level of lithium battery diaphragm manufacturers remained low, with an inventory of 29.55 million square meters, an increase of 3.5% month on month.
Battery grade copper foil: last week, the price of lithium battery copper foil was mainly stable, 8 μ M mainstream market price 105500107500 yuan / ton, 6 μ M the mainstream market price is 115500117500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the signing of new orders for lithium battery copper foil will begin around the middle of the month. Lithium battery copper foil enterprises are expected to increase strongly. It is expected that the current round of processing fee will increase by about 20 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) yuan / ton.
The downstream DRAM price of semiconductor materials rose slightly, while the flash memory price rose
Last week, the semiconductor industry index in Taiwan and Philadelphia fell 0.93% and 5.61% month on week respectively; Dix index rose 0.8% week on week. In DRAM, the price of downstream ddr34gb (1600MHZ) fell by 0.46% to $2.835. The prices of nandflash64gb and 32GB increased by 10.95% and 0.48% respectively on a weekly basis.
Investment advice
It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of rare earth permanent magnet sector, which is expected to be significantly improved by policy driven demand growth and whose valuation has entered a historically reasonable range, as well as the demand for carbon carbon matrix composites under the long-term growth prospect of photovoltaic installation after the risk of short-term overvalued value is released, and the market capacity brought about by the demand for lithium battery materials in the long-term development space of electric vehicles, And the localization progress and opportunities of semiconductor materials under the long-term trend of integrated circuit localization.
Risk tips
Price decline risk, prosperity change risk and policy change risk.
