\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 012 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) )
The company took the initiative to increase production capacity and further consolidate its position as the king
On March 7, 2022, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) increased the silicon wafer production capacity. According to the announcement, the investment scale of Qujing (phase II) monocrystalline silicon wafer project has been changed from 20GW per year to 30GW per year. By the end of 2021, the company’s silicon wafer production capacity is 110gw. With this expansion, the company’s silicon wafer production capacity is expected to reach 140 ~ 150gw by the end of 2022. According to our statistics, the new capacity of silicon wafer in 2022 will exceed 290gw, and the silicon wafer sector will face intensified competition. The company has industry-leading cost control ability. The increase of silicon wafer production capacity further demonstrates the company’s competitive advantage. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 11.612147.03/18.855 billion yuan, EPS is 2.15/2.72/3.48 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 38.1/30.1/23.5 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Launch incentive schemes in critical periods, lock in teams and lead technological innovation
Launch equity incentive scheme and bind the company’s core management team. The total number of incentive objects of stock options to be granted in this incentive plan is 2484, and the total number of restricted stock incentive objects is 27. The granted shares shall not exceed 37.54 million, accounting for about 0.69% of the total share capital of the company, and the exercise price is 62.2 yuan / share. The goal of the incentive plan is that from 2022 to 2024, the growth rate of the company’s revenue will not be less than 80%, 120% and 175% respectively compared with 2020, that is, not less than 98.2 billion yuan, 120.1 billion yuan and 150.1 billion yuan respectively. The compound growth rate of operating revenue from 2020 to 2024 will not be less than 29%. 2022 is the first year of mass production of the company’s high-efficiency battery. At this time, the company focuses on the core team to lay a solid foundation for continuing to take the lead in battery technology in the future.
With the rapid development of the distributed market, the component leader is expected to be stronger
In 2021, the newly installed capacity of distributed PV in China has accounted for more than 50%. The development of distributed PV is expected to drive the leading strength of components. In 2021, China’s installed capacity of PV increased by 53gw, and that of distributed PV increased by 29gw. The newly added proportion exceeded 50% for the first time, and the cumulative proportion steadily increased to 35.1% from 13.3% in 2016. The rapid development of distributed photovoltaic will make the downstream demand more dispersed. At the same time, the distributed demand is less sensitive to the component price. It depends more on the brand, channel, supply guarantee, after-sales service, company duration and other issues of the reorganization enterprise. Therefore, the voice of the leading companies of integrated components is significantly strengthened, and it is expected to be stronger in the future.
Risk tip: the competition in photovoltaic market intensifies and the growth of distributed market in the future is less than expected
