\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) 2 month output 130857 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of - 17.27% / - 47.13% respectively; The total sales volume was 138145 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of - 15.10% / - 50.17% respectively. Changan autonomous (Chongqing Changan + Hefei Changan) produced 62360 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of - 34.01% / - 54.92% respectively, and the sales volume was 67899 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of - 34.19% / - 55.99%; Changan Ford produced 9805 vehicles in February, with a month on month ratio of - 15.03% / - 61.87% respectively, and sold 11934 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 9.17% / - 51.98% respectively.
In February, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overall wholesale was - 15.10% / - 50.17% month on month, and the performance of joint venture was better than that of independent. In February, the overall output of the narrow passenger car industry reached 1.492 million units (year-on-year + 31.4%, month on month - 27.0%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 1.455 million units (year-on-year + 26.9%, month on month - 32.6%). From January to February, the passenger car industry wholesale 3.612 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year + 13.6%, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) January to February, 415400 units, with a cumulative year-on-year + 0.17%, Chip shortage + Spring Festival holiday in February affected Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) production and batch volume. In terms of sub brands, Changan Ford performed better than independent, and the wholesale achieved positive growth year-on-year. In terms of key models, Chang'an is independent: the second generation cs75plus was listed in February, with a price of 124900 yuan - 154900 yuan. As of February 18, the pre-sale order exceeded 15000, and the sales volume of cs75 this month was 13615, with a month-on-month ratio of - 58.36% / - 59.47% respectively; Cs55 sold 5183 vehicles this month, with a month on month ratio of - 49.37% / - 82.90% respectively; Uni-k sold 4040 vehicles this month, with a month on month ratio of + 96.88% / - 17.80% respectively; Uni-v sold 2142 vehicles this month, a month on month increase of + 835.37%. Changan Ford: freys sold 2123 vehicles in February, with a month on month ratio of + 157.65% / - 42.96% respectively; Lincoln adventurer sold 1641 vehicles in February, with a month on month ratio of + 4.32% / - 66.00% respectively.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overall stock removal: according to our self built inventory system, the overall inventory of Chang'an enterprises in February was - 7288 (compared with January), and the inventory of Chang'an independent enterprises in February was - 5539 (compared with January). The main stock removal models include Yidong (- 6331) and Chang'an cs85 (- 1691); Changan Ford enterprise has - 2129 vehicles in stock in the current month (compared with January), and the main vehicles to be stored include Ruijie (- 1178 vehicles) and explorer (- 875 vehicles).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the forecast of Changan Automobile's operating revenue of 106214137866/173574 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / + 29.8% / + 25.9%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4547 / 5946 / 7017 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.8% / + 30.8% / + 18.0%, EPS of 0.60/0.78/0.92 yuan and PE valuation of 19 / 14 / 12 times. Considering that Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) future performance will usher in a new round of improvement, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand is lower than expected
