\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Event: on March 9, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021, which achieved a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 46.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 53.0%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 7.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.3%; The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 6.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.2%.
The volume and price of all products increased simultaneously, but the gross profit margin of olefin business decreased significantly due to the rise of raw material prices. In terms of output, the output of coke was 4.546 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, and the output of polyethylene and polypropylene totaled 1.366 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. In terms of price, the average unit prices of polyethylene, polypropylene and coke were 7329.7/7657.2/1964.6 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.9% / + 9.9% / + 69.7%. In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margins of olefins, coke and fine chemicals were 32.3%, 55.2% and 38.3% respectively; Among them, affected by the sharp increase of 91.2% in the purchase unit price of gasification raw coal, the main raw material, and the small increase in the unit price of olefin products, the price difference of olefin products narrowed and the gross profit margin decreased by 10.5 percentage points.
Under the high crude oil price, the cost advantage of coal to olefins is prominent. From the beginning of 2022 to March 8, the futures price of Brent crude oil, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal and the spot price of propane of the three olefin production routes increased by 64.5%, 17.5% and 30.8% respectively. Among them, the rise of raw material cost of coal to olefin is the smallest, and the cost advantage of coal to olefin process is gradually highlighted.
New projects are advancing steadily, and growth expectations are gradually fulfilled. Olefin business: 1) Ningdong phase III 1 million T / a coal to olefin and C2-C5 comprehensive utilization to olefin project are planned to be put into operation at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023; 2) The 4 million T / a (phase I 2.6 million T / a) coal to olefin project in Inner Mongolia has been applied for EIA, and the construction will be officially started after the approval; 3) The company will also strive to complete the approval procedures of Ningdong phase IV coal to olefin project and start construction within 2022. Coke business: four coke ovens of the 3 million T / a coking polygeneration project were successively ignited and dried from October to November 2021, which is expected to contribute to the performance in 2022.
Under the goal of "double carbon", the company actively promotes Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen production project. On February 9, 2021, the first electrolytic cell began power transmission commissioning, and the first batch of Shanghai Hajime Advanced Material Technology Co.Ltd(301000) standard m3 / h electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment were built, with a green hydrogen production capacity of 240 million standard m3 / year (21400 tons), which can increase and reduce the consumption of coal resources by about 380000 tons, increase and reduce the annual carbon dioxide emission by about 660000 tons, and increase and reduce 5% of the total carbon emission of chemical plants. In addition, the company plans to increase the green hydrogen production capacity by 300 million standard cubic meters per year from 2022, increase and reduce the total carbon emission of chemical plants by 5%, strive to complete the enterprise's carbon emission reduction by 50% in 10 years, and take the lead in realizing the enterprise's carbon neutralization in 20 years.
Considering the impact of the closing price of coal and the net profit of the parent company from 1.7 billion yuan in 2023 / 2024 to 1.7 billion yuan in 2023 / 2024, it is suggested that the price of raw materials should be reduced to 10.7 billion yuan in 2023 / 2024; The compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2024 was 21.6%. Considering that the performance growth brought by future capacity launch is relatively certain, the company maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of slow progress of new projects; Risk of falling prices of main products such as polyethylene, polypropylene and coke; The risk of rising costs of raw materials such as coal.
