\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 23.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.0%; 21q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 16.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.4%.
Comments
In the past: 21q4 revenue growth maintained double-digit growth, or accumulated strength for 22 years of development
21q4 revenue growth was flat month on month, mainly due to the high base of last year and the impact of the epidemic on the operation of some core markets. It is expected that the advance collection at the statement end in 21 years will have a good performance, or accumulate strength for the development in 22 years. From the perspective of the annual report, the transshipment price continued to grow rapidly, benefiting from the actual demand for transshipment within 21 years.
At present: the big ship is setting sail again, and the marginal change under the underestimated value may be significant. We believe that the decline in valuation in the past year is mainly due to the fact that the eight generations Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rated price is less than 1000 and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) operation is less than expected; Over the past two months, the stock price performance has been flat, mainly due to the fact that the overall feedback of mobile sales during the Spring Festival is flat, while the rated price has not broken thousands, and the change of management has brought uncertainty to the marketing reform. We believe that:
1) the actual demand is constantly increasing, and 22q1 has a strong certainty of a good start: some sales in the same period last year include some goods reissued in previous years, so the sales volume corresponding to the report end this year has actually increased compared with the same period last year, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) value is prominent, and we expect 22q1 to have a strong certainty of a good start.
2) it is expected that the price will exceed 1000 this year, and it is expected to enter the positive circulation channel of operation: the price will not exceed 1000 in 2021, mainly due to the large actual delivery volume; Considering that the problems left over by history (inventory) have been basically solved, the company has recently held a marketing meeting and proposed to implement measures such as general five control and price support, classic price stabilization and strict investigation of low dumping prices. In 2022, the company is expected to take measures to control and price support and consolidate the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) status. Therefore, the price transmission will be smoother and the approval price will break the millennium.
3) the smooth transition of the management and the value of the layout are obvious: the recent personnel changes mean that the stability of the management will be stronger, and the subsequent formulation and implementation of the company’s policies will be conducted and implemented faster and better after the establishment of the new leadership. Under the background that the valuation has fully reflected the current business status & extremely cost-effective, we believe that although the growth rate of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) performance slowed down significantly in 2022, the adjustment and landing of the management will accelerate the launch of the giant ship with high quality, and the reform dividend may continue to be released in 2023 (the certainty of performance growth is strong), so the current time point is the turning point of operation.
Catalyst: the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dynamic sales performed better & the price broke thousands, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dynamic sales exceeded expectations, the reform measures were put forward & implemented, the secondary equity incentive was launched, etc.
Future: there is a lot of room for volume and price upward, and the 14th five year plan welcomes the period of high-quality development
From the perspective of the industry, there is a large upward space for volume and price, and high-end wine is still in the stage of steady capacity expansion. Volume: high end liquor is in the stage of rapid capacity expansion, and the speed may exceed the market expectation. Price: the expansion speed of 1000 yuan price belt will still exceed expectations, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will continue to enjoy dividends. From the perspective of the company, 2022 will continue to maintain double-digit growth and meet high-quality development:
1) eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : it is expected that on the basis of small and large-scale volume, the price will stand at thousands of yuan. Based on the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) high volume in 2021 (the volume includes the inventory of previous years) + the rated price can still be stable at 980 yuan + the inventory remains low, which can be interpreted as the continuous release of the company’s strong brand power. In the direction of volume control, the rated price is expected to stand at 1000 yuan in 2022, so as to open the positive cycle of operation again;
2) classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : it is a classic above the eighth generation, which is an important driving force for the improvement of ton price. At the general meeting of shareholders in June 2021, the company said: “The main brand will further strengthen the 1 + 3 system, that is, taking 501 as the value benchmark, the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the core large single product, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the high-end strategic large single product, supplemented by customized wine and cultural wine. Under the clear and complete product structure, the company will not reduce the investment volume during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which has become an important driving force to promote the rise of ton price”. At the same time, the “1218” conference said that in the future, we will continue to strengthen the cultivation of consumers, further optimize the traditional channels, further expand the emerging channels and further improve the group purchase channels. It is expected that the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will achieve a small volume on the basis of price increase (the ex factory price increased from 1399 yuan / bottle to 1599 yuan / bottle at the end of last year);
3) wine series: brand upgrading and optimization are ongoing. Based on the completion of brand optimization and upgrading in 2021, the increase of payment collection and dynamic sales as two wheel drive two-point synchronous assessment mechanism, and the average price per ton of wine as an important assessment index, the company will continue to implement the three major sectors of main brand + Series wine + ecological wine in 2022, create four major single products of series wine (wuliangchun, wuliangchun, wuliangtequ and Jianzhuang), and optimize and adjust the revenue of Luzhou flavor series wine Profit level.
Profit forecast and valuation
From 2021 to 2023, the company’s revenue growth rate was 16%, 15% and 16% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 17%, 18% and 17% respectively, and EPS was 6.0, 7.1 and 8.3 yuan respectively; PE was 27, 23 and 20 times respectively. Considering the accelerated release of the company’s reform dividend, the current valuation is cost-effective, and a buy rating is given.
Catalyst: Liquor demand recovered more than expected, and the rating continued to rise.
Risk warning: 1. Epidemic situation has repeatedly affected Baijiu selling. 2. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price rise was lower than expected.
