\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 566 Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) )
Key investment points
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of profits increased significantly, and the performance was accelerated
From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 35%. We are optimistic about Jichuan, which is transitioning to pediatric drugs and developing second-line varieties after the risk of Pudilan is cleared, and the annual performance is expected to maintain a high increase.
Policy encouragement + product upgrading, accelerating the growth of pediatric drugs
Paediatric variety Xiaoer douqiao Qingre Granule has a strong growth sustainability, and its growth power comes from: (1) with the implementation of the three child policy, paediatric drugs are further encouraged by the policy and are optimistic about the large volume of hospital end and OTC channels; (2) The company launched a new production line. In 2021, the company began to gradually replace all children's douqiao Qingre granules with sucrose free versions. At the beginning of 2022, the company successively launched orange flavor children's douqiao granules, which significantly improved the taste, helped to improve children's compliance with drugs and boost the revenue of pediatric drugs.
Relying on strong channel development ability, the second tier category provides new driving force for performance growth
Historically, the company has accumulated mature OTC sales channels through Pudilan, Xiaoer douqiao and rabeprazole sodium, and its sales capacity has been verified. It is expected that the volume of new varieties of the company throughout the year is expected to continue to accelerate, and build a medium and long-term product echelon by relying on Chinese and Western Medicine varieties such as Jianweixiaoshi oral liquid, Huanglong Zhike granule and protein iron succinate oral solution.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 7.631/87.99/9.532 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.8% / 15.3% / 8.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.665/2.022/2.261 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.3% / 21.5% / 11.8%, corresponding to the current PE of 12.38x/10.19x/9.12x respectively, which has the valuation cost performance and maintains the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
Lower than expected risk of pediatric drug sales; Affected by centralized purchase, the price of the company's core drugs fluctuates sharply; The R & D and sales of growth hormone are less than expected.
