\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Event description:
The total operating income of the company increased by about 2.3 billion yuan in the same year, and the total operating profit increased by about 2.2% in the same month.
Event 2: the tender offer for Aoyou became unconditional. As of March 3, the accepted shares of the company’s overseas subsidiary Jingang holdings accounted for 18.38% of the total share capital of Aoyou, and the proportion of Aoyou shares held or controlled by the offeror was about 52.70%. The offer became unconditional.
Normal temperature liquid milk has achieved a good start, and is expected to maintain a medium and low double-digit growth throughout the year. The epidemic prevention and control of the Spring Festival is more accurate, and the demand for gifts has significantly improved year-on-year. The sales of normal temperature liquid milk represented by Jindian and anmushi exceeded expectations. Jinlingguan infant milk powder became the first batch of infant formula milk powder meeting the new national standard of milk powder. From January to February, the sales revenue increased by 30% +, and the growth rate ranked first in the industry.
After the acquisition of Aoyou, the combined market share is second only to Feihe, and the infant milk powder business with high gross profit will reach a new level. First of all, the advantages of Aoyou channel are in the third and fourth tier cities with more newborns, covering 40000 maternal and infant channel terminals. Under the modern channel layout and channel synergy, the company will gain professional operation experience of mother and baby stores. Second, aoyoujia beiaite sheep milk powder has laid a leading edge. Although the market volume of sheep milk powder is small (the manufacturer’s revenue caliber is about 10 billion), the double-digit growth rate is expected to be significantly better than that of milk powder. The “simultaneous development of cattle and sheep” can give business growth prospects. Third, the raw milk and formula resources of the two sides in Europe and Oceania may be synergistic.
From January to February, the total profit / total revenue was 15.34%, an increase of 3PCT compared with 1q21. Internal and external factors resonate and are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the company’s profit margin. The endogenous driving force for the upward profitability comes from the change of business structure, that is, the increase in the proportion of high-end white milk and infant milk powder with high gross profit. The more important driving force is the potential growth of leading dairy enterprises in the dairy supply chain. Different from the traditional development mode of “vertical integration with dairy farmers as the core” in dairy developed countries, the industrialization process of China’s dairy industry is the integrated development driven by dairy enterprises. Dairy enterprises are the main market force for the large-scale production of raw milk in the upstream, consumer education and channel network in the downstream. We judge that after a large amount of investment in the early stage, the leading dairy enterprises represented by the company have entered the dividend harvest period, which is mainly reflected in the decline of sales expense rate, while the rise of raw milk price for more than a year plays a catalytic role.
Investment advice
Maintain the “buy” rating. The company will continue to improve its profitability on the premise of steady growth in scale. Regardless of the impact of Aoyou consolidated statement, it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 109.6, 123.3 and 138.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13% / 12% / 13%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 9.445, 12.04 and 16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33% / 28% / 33%, EPS will be 1.48, 1.88 and 2.50 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 24.90, 19.53 and 14.70 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The rise of raw material price exceeds the expected risk, food safety risk, product promotion and channel expansion are less than the expected risk.
