\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Key investment points
Event: Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) announcement: the company announced that its revenue in 21 years was about 13.27 billion, with an increase of 29.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.29 billion, an increase of 23.5%; In Q4 alone, the revenue / deduction of non attributable net profit increased by 42.58% / 10.06%, slightly exceeding the market expectation.
The consumption demand in the province was solid and made a good start. The Spring Festival has made a brilliant start. According to channel research, this year has achieved the fastest payment in history. We calculate that the progress of Q1 payment this year is expected to exceed 50%; We believe that there are two main reasons for the higher than expected payment: on the one hand, it is because the economy of the Yangtze River Delta is strong and less affected by the epidemic; On the other hand, Anhui is a major province of outbound work. According to Baidu migration big data, the flow of people returning home this year has more than doubled year-on-year in 2021, restoring strong demand for gifts and banquets at the middle and high-end and sub high-end in Anhui. The demand for wedding banquet is still under the control of the epidemic for the time being, but it is relatively rigid from the perspective of the whole year. Since last year, the wedding banquet has been transferred to other holidays and daily weekends. It is expected that the demand for wedding banquet during the Spring Festival is expected to be supplemented after the festival. According to the channel research, we believe that the expected sales willingness and consumer confidence are improved simultaneously. Some regions in the province are expected to achieve double-digit growth, and the inventory is in a normal low position. Some ancient 5 and 8 are out of stock during the Spring Festival, and the consumption foundation is solid.
High end attaches great importance to and brings growth elasticity. The company has set up sales companies for high-end products such as gu30, and continues to plan and develop high-end products; The price increase of secondary high-end products shows the scarcity and increases the channel profit space; At the same time, improve the product structure, achieve existing products, and strive for high-end share; It is expected that there will be a steady increase in gu8 and below in 2022, and gu16 and GU20 will still maintain a rapid growth rate.
Baijiu consumption steadily and steadily, and continue to focus on the process of national reform. Anhui's overall Baijiu consumption has steadily increased, and the price expansion of over 2-300 yuan has obviously strong local brand strength. It is optimistic about the double logic of share harvest and consumption upgrading as the leading liquor of real estate. The market layout outside the province is comprehensive, with the combination of investment promotion and distribution and actual dynamic sales, and the development momentum is strong; Continue to pay attention to the management upgrading process such as national reform.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: maintain the "buy" rating. According to the 21-year performance forecast released by the company, we slightly adjusted the profit forecast. We expect the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 133 / 156 / 18 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 29% / 17% / 16%; The net profit was 2.3 billion yuan / 3.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 24% / 35% / 24%, corresponding to EPS of 4.34/5.84/7.22 yuan respectively (the previous time was 4.53/5.65/6.85 yuan), corresponding to PE of 34 / 28 times from 2022 to 2023, which is highly recommended.
Risk tips: the risk of continuous spread of the epidemic, the slowdown in the promotion of new products, and the risk of food quality accidents.
