\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 546 Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) )
Event: the company issued an announcement on the operation from January to February 2022. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 7.22 billion yuan, an increase of about 11.4% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 840 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 293.5%.
From January to February, the price base is slightly lower. Thermal coal: from January to February, the average price of port q5500 was 959 yuan / ton, a decrease of 420 yuan / ton compared with the fourth quarter of last year (the average price was 1378 yuan / ton). Coking coal: affected by the environmental protection production restriction policy in the heating season and the Winter Olympic Games, the downstream demand for coking coal after the year is weak. From January to February, the price of the main coking coal depot in Jingtang Port increased by 2739 yuan / ton, down 565 yuan / ton compared with the fourth quarter of last year (the average price was 3304 yuan / ton).
Since March, power coal and coking coal have made rapid progress all the way. Power coal: at present, the main contradiction in the power coal market is still along the coast, the storage of power coal in the port is at a low level in recent years, and the function of the reservoir is weakened; At the same time, the high cost of imported coal leads to the reduction of the import quantity, which intensifies the contradiction between supply and demand. As of March 10, the spot price of the port had reached 1800 + yuan / ton, much higher than the average price of the previous two months (959 yuan / ton). In the future, if the low inventory problem along the coast cannot be solved, the coal price is still easy to rise but difficult to fall. Coking coal: after the Winter Olympic Games, the blast furnace start-up and hot metal production of the downstream steel plant increased significantly. The current inventory is at an absolute low in the same period. There is a strong demand for active replenishment. However, China’s coking coal production space is limited, the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal is still limited, and the coking coal price in the international market is high, and the price rebounds strongly. As of March 10, the price of Jingtang Port’s main coking coal depot has increased by 3350 yuan / ton.
The company focuses on spot sales and has great performance flexibility. The company has a complete range of commercial coal, mostly lean coal, including coking coal, fat coal, lean coal, lean coal, anthracite, gas coal, long flame coal, etc. Due to the miscellaneous coal types and small volume, the company has not signed a long-term agreement contract and is mostly sold at spot price. Under the background of continuous upward coal price, the performance flexibility is huge, and the future profits are worth looking forward to.
Optimize assets and go into battle with light equipment, and the dividend proportion is expected to increase. At the beginning of its establishment, the company was a traditional trading company. Previously, due to the company’s poor risk management of coal trade business, it was difficult for the company to collect payment and the risk of bad debts increased significantly. In order to optimize the asset quality, since 2016, the company has strictly controlled the trade risk, reduced the trade scale, made efforts to clean up the problems left over by history, accelerated the disposal of some trading subsidiaries with serious losses, launched the “downsizing plan”, and continuously reduced the burden of subsequent performance. Meanwhile, since 2014, a total of 8.1 billion yuan of bad debt losses have been withdrawn. Through asset impairment for many consecutive years, the company’s assets have been continuously optimized, and the follow-up is expected to be light. Considering that the company’s historical burden has been basically digested, there is no major capital expenditure, the profit is higher than expected, the cash flow on hand is abundant, and the company’s dividend is expected to increase under the background of high dividend in the industry.
Investment advice. The company has complete coal types and excellent coal quality. It continues to strictly control trade risks, reduce trade coal sales, and significantly improve its profitability. At present, the static valuation is less than 5 times, which is at a historical low and needs to be repaired. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.95 billion yuan, 7.84 billion yuan and 7.94 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.50 yuan, 3.95 yuan and 4.01 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE only 5.3, 3.4 and 3.3, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices fell sharply, bad debt risk broke out, and the transformation of new energy was less than expected.
