\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 187 Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) )
Event description
On February 25, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) released the performance express for 2021. The annual operating revenue was 15.121 billion yuan (Unaudited, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 1.522 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%. Among them, the decline rate of single Q4 performance has narrowed compared with Q3. In Q4, the company achieved an operating revenue of 6.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.16%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 815 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.65%, and a net profit attributable to the parent after deduction of non-profit of 643 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%.
Core view
The layout of new energy vehicles with the strongest power is the core target of vehicle electrification. The penetration rate of automobile new energy continued to increase. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile increased by 135.8% year-on-year in mid January, and the volume of new power products continued to accelerate in February. Weilai increased by 9.9% year-on-year, the ideal year-on-year growth was 265.8%, and Xiaopeng increased by 180% year-on-year. Relying on the advantages of IDM mode and the release of phase II IGBT production capacity, the company's IGBT business has benefited deeply. Its products have entered the supply chain of many leading vehicle manufacturers, which is expected to achieve the leading position of IGBT in China.
The Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) businesses such as electric drive of new energy vehicles and wind solar converter (inverter) are expected to be large-scale in 22 years. The company has deeply cooperated with FAW, Chang'an and other first-line automobile factories to launch a number of electric drive products. In addition, the company continues to make efforts in the fields of wind power converters, photovoltaic inverters and vehicle sensors. The Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) batch production will contribute to the main increment and optimize the company's business structure. Advance the layout of silicon carbide and seize the market opportunity. In December 2021, Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) released China's first high-power electric drive product based on independent SiC devices. It is expected that Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) is expected to seize the market opportunity in advance with the promotion of silicon carbide certification and mass production of the company.
Rail transit business is negatively affected by the epidemic and is expected to hit the bottom and rebound in the future. In 2021, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, China's traffic volume and railway construction slowed down, China Railway Mobile's investment in new equipment decreased significantly, and the company's rail transit business fell periodically. However, with the epidemic gradually under control and under the background of the national "steady growth" and "new infrastructure" policies, China's railway track construction continues to advance, the passenger flow will recover steadily, and the company's rail transit business is expected to hit the bottom and rebound.
Profit forecast
"Buy" rating is given for the first time. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.017/24.25/2.745 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 18.5% / + 20.2% / + 13.2%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.42/1.71/1.94, and PE valuation from 21 to 23 will be 44.10/36.68/32.40 times respectively. The company is the leader of the global rail transit system. Relying on the advanced layout and the accumulated capacity / technical advantages of rail transit, the company has successfully opened new energy IGBT / electric drive, wind solar converter (inverter) and other emerging fields. With the release of orders and capacity in 22 years, the profitability of the company is about to be repaired.
Risk tips
The risk of macro policy changes, the demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the technical iteration is less than expected.
