\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 05 Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) )
Matters:
In March 10, 2022, the Guangdong provincial drug exchange center issued the notice on the collection of the Guangdong alliance's diclofenac and other medicines. The first batch of the results of the selected / selected results were selected. The company received a satisfactory price of 181875 yuan / sticker. On March 7, the company issued the draft restricted equity incentive plan for 2022, which plans to grant 5.3 million restricted shares to no more than 72 incentive objects at a grant price of 13.94 yuan / share. The performance assessment target is based on the net profit in 2021, and the growth rate from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 30%, 55% and 75% respectively.
Ping An View:
The centralized purchase of boots landed, and the price reduction was moderate, which was in line with expectations. The Guangdong alliance collection company, lsso, has successfully obtained the eligible candidate at the price of 181875 yuan / Sticker (that is, the winning bid for P2). The first three common products of the first three common drugs were selected for the optional qualification (P1 bid). According to the rules, the company will get 100% of its agreed purchase volume in the first year and the first three parts, and will also get incremental use. Compared with the lowest price of 24.25 yuan / sticker in the alliance area, the price reduction is about 25%, and the price reduction range is relatively mild, which is in line with the previous market expectation of 20% - 30%. We believe that after the implementation of this centralized mining, the short-term suppression factors of the company will be relieved. At the same time, the bid winning of centralized procurement will also lift the prescription restriction of public medical institutions and improve the admission speed. It is expected that the sales volume in Guangdong alliance area will increase significantly.
Equity incentive was launched in due time to demonstrate development confidence. The company launched the equity incentive plan before the implementation of centralized mining by Guangdong alliance, which shows that it is still full of confidence in the development after centralized mining. The objects of this equity incentive are managers and technical (business) backbone who have a direct impact on the company's operating performance and future development. From the perspective of unlocking target, compared with 2021, the growth rate of net profit from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 30%, 55% and 75% respectively. According to the minimum target, the CAGR will reach 20.51% from 2021 to 2024. Considering that the equity incentive target basically belongs to the minimum guarantee target, the probability of final performance exceeds the unlocking conditions.
Ketoprofen's new products will be launched soon, and the development of OTC side is worth looking forward to. The company is located in China's percutaneous drug supply tap, and has a large potential of varieties around the gel paste platform. The next heavy product Ketoprofen Gel patch is expected to be approved in 2022 by Q2. After the price reduction of Guangdong alliance's centralized purchase, the company will speed up the expansion of OTC channels. We think gel paste has consumption attributes, and has broad market space at the OTC end. At the same time, OTC sales are relatively less affected by medical insurance fee control.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the centralized purchase of Guangdong alliance has been implemented, the company's price reduction is moderate, which is in line with market expectations, and the short-term suppression factors are relieved. The admission rate in Guangdong is expected to accelerate and the sales volume is expected to rise significantly. At the same time, OTC channel expansion has become a new focus to further improve the product ceiling. We temporarily maintain the company's EPS forecast of 0.90 yuan, 1.33 yuan and 2.06 yuan from 2021 to 2023. The current stock price corresponds to only 19 times of PE in 2022, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) R & D risk: the company has many pipelines under research, which may lead to R & D failure, especially some improved and innovative products. 2) Product volume is lower than expected: due to the influence of product competition pattern, company marketing ability and other factors, the product volume may be lower than expected. 3) Policy risk: the implementation of centralized purchase policy exceeds the expected risk.
