\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 888 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) )
Event: the company announced the operating data from January to February 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of about 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%. The data are in line with expectations.
Comments: the overall sales are still driven by the growth of duty-free market in Hainan outlying islands. According to the latest data of Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce, the total sales of 10 duty-free shops in Hainan from January to February 2022 were 12.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%; Among them, tax-free sales reached 11.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%; The number of duty-free shoppers reached 2126600, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The number of duty-free purchases was 12.623 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%. According to the announced data from January to February 2022, we expect the overall business income of China free Hainan to be more than 10 billion, and the income of online and other businesses is expected to be 2.5-3 billion. The return to parent profit rate is 18%, which is better than 16% in 2021q1 and 6% in 2021q4. In addition to the Spring Festival and the preferential income tax rate for Hainan business since Q3 last year, the more important factor affecting the net profit rate is the improvement of management. Since new year's Day this year, the company has scientifically arranged the marketing plan under the command of "seeking benefits from management", narrowed the discount level and paid attention to the assessment of profit indicators, The operating indicators set the best record in the same period in history and promoted the level of gross profit margin to increase significantly.
Q1 Revenue Forecast: due to the epidemic, Sanya duty-free stores closed for five days from March 3 to 7, and sporadic outbreaks increased in various places, the sales data in March is expected to be affected. The average sales in the first two months of 2022 is 6.55 billion. Considering the epidemic situation in Sanya in March, assuming that the sales in March are 6 billion, the expected revenue in 2022q1 is 19.1 billion, the revenue in 2021q1 is 18.134 billion, and the single month sales in March 2021 is 7.2 billion. Comprehensively, the sales growth rate in 2022q1 is expected to be about 5%.
Q1 net profit attributable to parent: the average net profit attributable to parent in the first two months of 2022 is 1.2 billion, and the net profit attributable to parent in March 2021 is about 850 million, with a net profit margin of 12%. Assuming that the net profit margin in March this year is the same as 12% and the net profit in March is 720 million, considering that the overall net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 is 3.12 billion (24 + 7.2), the growth rate of net profit is expected to be 9%.
The effect of short-term profit protection is reflected. There is no need to worry about the disturbance of the short-term epidemic, but more need to pay attention to the long-term value: this year, the company's goal has shifted, paying more attention to the profit assessment. Hainan Province is also emphasizing the price linkage between duty-free merchants. Without considering the impact of the disturbance of the short-term epidemic, the company's profit margin will be in a period of slow repair, and the market does not need to worry too much. In the long run, We pay more attention to the company's excellent management ability. At present, the online business is gradually integrated. After the unified integration of online channels of various stores, the logistics and warehousing part is also being adjusted, and the improvement of efficiency will also increase the overall gross profit margin of the company in the future; New brands are also continuously introduced. The new harbor duty-free store opened in the third quarter, which will become an important driving force to boost the company's performance growth in the future.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: taking into account the company's performance express, we raised the EPS for 21 years to 4.91 yuan (up 1%), and considering the impact of the company's short-term epidemic disturbance and integration costs, we reduced the EPS for 22-23 years to 5.68 yuan and 7.15 yuan (down 8% respectively), corresponding to 38 / 33 / 26 times of PE in 20212023. However, as an absolute leading company of tax exemption, we continue to innovate, During the epidemic period, the layout of the line, the introduction of tax-free favorable policies for outlying islands, and the current valuation is at a low level. We are optimistic about the long-term value of the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: under the influence of the epidemic, the purchasing power of residents decreased and the implementation of policies was less than expected.
