\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 089 Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) )
Key points
Event: the company released the announcement of main business data from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of about 11.334 billion yuan, an increase of about 86.94% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 2.068 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 115.42%.
The silicon material production capacity is gradually released, but the supply and demand situation is still relatively tight, and the silicon material price will remain high in 22 years; After the company's technical transformation and new production capacity are put into operation, it will ensure a high increase in shipments. Although Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL, Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) and other silicon enterprises will release silicon production capacity in 2022 (it is expected that China's silicon production capacity is expected to exceed 1 million tons by the end of 22), under the background that the newly put into production capacity still needs to climb, some capacity will not form effective production in 2022; At the same time, the terminal demand continues to improve under the background of the decline in the price of the industrial chain. We maintain our judgment that the photovoltaic demand is expected to exceed 220gw in 2022. The strong demand for silicon material will play a supporting role in its price, and the possibility of rapid and sharp price decline is low. We judge that the average price of silicon material in 2022 is expected to remain above 180 yuan / kg.
On the one hand, the company will carry out the technical transformation of Xinjiang polysilicon production line, which is expected to be completed in 2022h1, which will increase the production capacity from the current 66000 T / A to 100000 t / A, and the production cost is expected to be further reduced after the cold hydrogenation capacity is sufficient; On the other hand, the company is steadily promoting the construction of Baotou 100000 t / a project. It is expected that 2022h2 will be mechanically completed and reach production by the end of the year, driving the company's total production capacity to 200000 t / a by the end of the year.
The State Grid's "14th five year plan" UHV plan exceeded expectations, and the company's power transmission and transformation business performance is expected to maintain a high growth. According to China Energy News, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the State Grid plans to build a total investment of 380 billion yuan in the "24 AC and 14 DC" UHV project, and the State Grid plans to start 13 UHV lines in 2022, which is significantly higher than the UHV plan (7-circuit UHV DC) proposed in the "carbon peak and carbon neutralization action plan" of the State Grid in March 2021. The company leads the industry in the market share of UHV Transformer Products (the historical bid winning rate is 25 ~ 30%), and its self-developed ± 1100kV UHV converter transformer and other products have been listed in the list of the first major technical equipment projects in the energy field, and breakthroughs have been made in the key technology of UHV DC bushing. In the future, with the scale of UHV construction exceeding expectations, The company's power transmission and transformation business is expected to maintain high growth.
Maintain the "buy" rating: according to the company's production expansion rhythm, judgment on the future silicon price, superposition of the State Grid's accelerated promotion of UHV construction and other reasons, we maintain the 21-year profit forecast and raise the 22-23 year profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.091104.37/12.472 billion in 21-23 years (maintain / increase by 18% / increase by 20%), corresponding to eps1 87 / 2.75/3.29 yuan. The current share price corresponds to 11 / 7 / 6 times of PE in 21-23 years. The company will maintain its leading position in the new energy industry with the growth of the above two industries as the main body of the new energy industry and the improvement of the company's rating in the future.
Risk tip: the production capacity and sales volume of silicon material are lower than expected; The new installed capacity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected; Overseas business operation risk.
