\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Matters:
The company disclosed in the annual report of 2021 that in 2021, the revenue was 3.095 billion yuan (year-on-year + 35.44%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 643 million yuan (year-on-year + 62.97%). The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 15 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, and increase 6 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve.
Ping An View:
In 2021, the performance increased rapidly, and the net interest rate increased by 3.51pct. 1) Revenue side: in 2021, the annual sales volume of the company’s main product screen printing equipment was 393, with a year-on-year increase of 46.1%, which strongly promoted the good growth of the company’s revenue. 2) Gross profit margin: in 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 38.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.28pct, mainly due to the domestic substitution of the company’s raw materials and parts and the increase of bargaining power. 3) Expense side: in 2021, the total rate of the company’s sales, management, R & D and finance expenses was 19.18%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.93 PCT, which was mainly due to the increase of R & D expense rate. 4) Net profit margin: in 2021, the company’s net profit margin attributable to the parent company reached 20.77%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.51pct. 5) Orders: at the end of 2021, the company’s contract liabilities reached 2.405 billion yuan, an increase of 50.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in orders on hand. In 2021, the company obtained heterojunction whole line orders from Anhui Huasheng, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , REC and other customers, and the products were highly recognized by customers at home and abroad.
The fixed increase was successfully completed, making full preparations for the outbreak of heterojunction orders. In December 2021, the fixed increase of the company was successfully completed, raising a total of 2.812 billion yuan (the number of shares issued was 4.36 million, and the average price was 645 yuan / share). It is estimated that after the project is completed, 40 sets of PECVD equipment, PVD equipment and automation equipment will be added annually, with an annual income of 6 billion yuan and an annual net profit of 879 million yuan. It is worth mentioning that the company’s customer Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) participated in the fixed increase and added the commitment of share locking period, which increased from 6 months to 12 months, reflecting the downstream customers’ recognition of the company’s strength.
Buy back the company’s shares to demonstrate development confidence. In February 2022, the company announced that it plans to buy back the company’s shares with its own funds of RMB 162.5 million to RMB 325 million. The upper limit of the repurchase price is no more than 650 yuan / share, and the repurchase period is 12 months. The repurchase plan reflects the company’s confidence in its development prospects and recognition of the company’s internal value, which is conducive to enhancing investors’ confidence in the company.
Heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency increase ushered in a critical period, and the company’s orders are expected to usher in an explosion period. At present, the cost difference between perc battery and heterojunction battery per watt is about 25 cents, of which the cost of silicon wafer and silver paste per watt are the main differences. 1) For the cost of silicon wafers, on the one hand, the trend of n-type silicon wafers is significant, and more and more enterprises are expected to adopt n-type silicon wafers of 130 microns or less, so as to save the cost of silicon wafers; On the other hand, with large-scale production, the prices of n-type silicon wafer and p-type silicon wafer are expected to be equal. 2) On the one hand, the price of domestic silver slurry will be significantly reduced in an orderly manner; On the other hand, silver clad copper is in a critical trial period. Once it matures, it will greatly reduce the consumption of silver slurry per watt.
Investment suggestion: fine tune the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 854 million yuan, 1308 million yuan and 1.798 billion yuan (the value before 20222023 will be 844 million yuan and 1.268 billion yuan respectively), and the corresponding P / E ratio will be 69 times, 45 times and 33 times respectively. As the leader of hjt whole line equipment, the company will fully enjoy the dividends of hjt industry and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) risk of declining prosperity of the industry: if the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry declines, it will affect the order growth of equipment enterprises. 2) Acceptance cycle risk: the company’s inventory scale is large, and the uncertainty of the acceptance cycle may lead to the fluctuation of the company’s performance. 3) Risk of new technology R & D falling short of expectations: if the R & D of the company’s hjt whole line equipment falls short of expectations, the new orders of hjt equipment will fall short of expectations. 4) Cash collection risk: if the customer encounters financial deterioration, it will bring bad debt risk to the company.
