\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 25 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) )
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in February 2022: the sales volume in February was 138000, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.1% and a month on month increase of - 50.2%; In February, the output totaled 131000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 17.3% and a month on month increase of - 47.1%. From January to February, the company's cumulative sales volume was 415000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 0.2%; The cumulative output was 378000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of - 1.7%.
Analysis and judgment:
Steady growth in sales and rapid launch of independent new products
Wholesale is greater than output, and the company's inventory continues to be destocked. From January to February, 37000 vehicles were removed from the company's inventory, and the demand was stable and good. According to brands:
1) self owned brand passenger cars (Chongqing + Hefei two core bases): the cumulative sales volume from January to February reached 222000, a year-on-year increase of - 13.0%. On the one hand, the company signs a guarantee agreement with suppliers; On the other hand, the company actively seeks domestic chip substitution, and will implement 127 chip technology substitution of 35 parts this year. The company's flexible chip supply system is expected to further reduce the loss due to the lack of chip.
The independent has successively ushered in the reform and renewal, and the heat margin of the main products is upward:
The second generation cs75plus is equipped with 8at as standard and has been listed at the end of February. The intellectualization has been greatly upgraded. The new car provides four modes of HUD, and a camera integrating faceid and AI fatigue monitoring and early warning function has been added. Cs75plus ranks at the top of the SUV sales list since its listing. We believe that the intelligent configuration of the second generation cs75plus further caters to the needs of young car buyers, and the classic products are expected to glow with new vitality;
Uni-v, a heavy sedan, will be launched soon, with a price of 108900131900 yuan. Compared with the competitive Honda Civic at the same level, uni-v has obvious advantages in intelligence level, interior and exterior decoration materials and power performance, and is equipped with electric tail as standard, which is more sporty. 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 yuan is the mainstream price range of passenger cars. In 2021, the price of passenger cars in China will be 1 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) 50000 yuan, accounting for about 32%. The market space is broad, and the product power has obvious advantages in the same level. We judge that the steady-state monthly sales is expected to exceed 10000 vehicles;
Uni Kidd was officially launched today, opening the hybrid era of uni series. The new car has launched two models at a price of 176900192900 yuan. Hybrid has the advantages of energy saving and 0 mileage anxiety. Compared with fuel vehicles, the purchase premium is gradually narrowed, and the cost performance is highlighted. We expect that as a transition scheme from fuel to pure electricity, hybrid will accelerate to seize the share of fuel and pure electricity in the medium term, and the demand is expected to grow rapidly.
2) joint venture: the cumulative sales volume of Changan Ford from January to February reached 37000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.4%. From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of Chang'an Mazda reached 30000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 64.4%. The joint venture brand has recovered steadily, and the incremental space of Lincoln brand is large: Lincoln Z will be listed on March 12, with a price of 255000342000 yuan. Compared with BBA entry-level models, Lincoln Z has obvious advantages in body size. Its body size of 4982 / 1865 / 1485mm exceeds that of Audi A4, BMW 3 series and Mercedes Benz C-class; Lincoln Z series is equipped with 2.0T high-power turbocharged engine as standard, and has obvious advantages in power performance. As the inheritance of American luxury, we judge that Lincoln Z will become a strong competitor for 300000 Yuan passenger cars.
The new energy platform accelerates the output, and avita carries high-end products
Relying on the new EPA platform and high-end CHN platform, the company plans to launch more than 20 new intelligent electric products in the next five years. New energy "Shangri La" plans to build three new special electric vehicle platforms, epa0, epa1 and epa2, covering multiple levels and multiple products such as small, compact and medium-sized. The small car a158 and compact car c385 based on this platform are expected to be listed in q2-q3. Avita 11 based on high-end CHN platform will also realize the first batch of mass production and user delivery in Q3. In addition, the company's blue whale IDD hybrid system will also be gradually installed on existing fuel models, and the uni series will be equipped with PHEV version.
Avita, a brand-new high-end brand created by Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) together with Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was released in Shanghai in November 2021. Avita 11, the first model, is expected to be officially unveiled at this year's Beijing auto show and is expected to be delivered in Q3. Avita emotional intelligent electric vehicle attaches great importance to the exploration of consumers' real psychological demands and actively initiated user interaction, and actively explores the future oriented humanized travel technology brand. We believe that the intelligent relay and electric competition in the second half will greatly enhance the needs of end consumers in terms of user interaction, and avita's high-end route has broad prospects.
Investment advice
The company's own brand capacity is fully loaded, the scale effect is prominent, the joint venture brand benefits from the high growth of the luxury car market, the delivery of avita new cars is imminent, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the company's endogenous profit creation ability and scientific and technological growth. We maintain the forecast: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 102865/114494/125943 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.578/56.64/6.946 billion yuan, the EPS will be 0.60/0.74/0.91 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 11.28 yuan / share on March 10, 2022, and the PE will be 19 / 15 / 12 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The iteration of independent brand models is not as expected; Ford's strategic adjustment is less than expected; Mazda's integration is not as expected; Avita brand development is not as expected.
