\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Events
The company issued the 2021 annual performance express.
After preliminary accounting, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan during the reporting period, an increase of 28.95% over the same period of last year; The operating profit was 3.086 billion yuan, an increase of 26.78% over the same period last year; The total profit was 3.155 billion yuan, an increase of 27.55% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.291 billion yuan, an increase of 23.54% over the same period last year; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.201 billion yuan, an increase of 24.14% over the same period of last year; The basic earnings per share was 4.44 yuan, an increase of 20.63% over the same period last year.
Brief comment
The original pulp of the year has made great progress, and Gujing’s revenue in 2021 exceeded expectations.
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 13.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.95%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.54%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year of 21 was 17.26%, a slight decrease of 0.76 PCT. In the fourth quarter alone, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.66%; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in the corresponding fourth quarter was 10.17%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09pct. The company’s annual revenue in the year of 21 exceeded the expected growth, which is expected to be mainly due to the following factors:
1. In 2021, the epidemic control in Anhui was generally good, and on the one hand, it ensured the recovery of Baijiu consumption scenes such as banquets and parties. On the other hand, it also creates a favorable environment for the economic recovery in the province. The trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading in the province is obvious under the continuous increase of the residents’ income and expenditure level.
2. The trend of liquor consumption in Baijiu province has increased to the concentration of famous liquor. Gujing as a leading brand in the province has fully enjoyed the bonus of concentration increase and achieved a higher growth.
③ in terms of products, the original pulp of the year created the basic performance of the company. Under the consumption upgrading, the products above Gu 8 continued to increase in large quantities, and Gu 16 and Gu 20 continued to grow high under the low base, driving the high growth of the overall performance of the company; In addition, the company formed a diversified product layout of “three products and four fragrances” through the acquisition of Yellow Crane Tower and Mingguang. Affected by the epidemic situation in Hubei in 2020, the performance of Yellow Crane Tower was weak. With the recovery of consumption scene in Hubei in 2021, the brand of Yellow Crane Tower achieved high growth under a low base.
④ in terms of channels, the company has accelerated the layout of markets outside the province, and the products above gu8 have gradually achieved large volume in the market around Anhui. The markets in Jiangsu and Hebei have begun to take shape, and the markets in Jiangxi and Hubei have also entered the stage of rapid development. The breakthrough of markets outside the province will also contribute to the growth of the company’s revenue. In the future, the multi-point flowering of markets outside the province will bring more growth space for the company’s performance.
Increasing short-term investment will open the ceiling for the company’s long-term performance space.
Throughout the year, the company’s net profit margin decreased slightly, which is expected to be mainly related to the company’s increasing market investment. The products above gu8 are still in the market cultivation period, and the cost investment is relatively large. The company’s layout is long-term. In the future, with the products above gu8 entering the mature period, the company’s profitability is expected to continue to improve. In addition, in terms of channels, the company has strengthened the market development outside the province. It is expected that the market development in Jiangxi and Hubei will continue to increase. In recent years, with the continuous investment of the company in the market outside the province, Gujing’s brand influence across the country has gradually increased, driving the opening of the market outside the province.
The feedback of Spring Festival mobile sales is optimistic, and the first quarter can be expected to start well.
Before and after the Spring Festival, Anhui’s epidemic situation was generally better. The main Baijiu consumption scenes such as banquet, dinner and gift giving in the province were less affected by the epidemic. According to the feedback from the tracked cities, the pace of payment collection in Gujing is expected to accelerate by about 5pct year-on-year, and the power of supplementary payment and replenishment after the festival is also sufficient, which can make a good start.
Gujing’s “three products and four fragrances” product matrix is formed, and there is a logic of nationalization in the future.
\u3000\u30001、 “Three tastes and four fragrances” “The product matrix has taken shape, and Gujing has accelerated the layout of high-end products. At present, Gujing has formed a product matrix of Luzhou flavor, Qingxiang flavor, antique flavor and minglv flavor under the three brands of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) + Huanghelou + Mingguang liquor industry. In September, it acquired Maotai Town Collection liquor industry to layout Maotai flavor and enrich the product matrix. 2, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) has the ability of nationalization. The company is one of the old eight famous wines 1、 The brand gene is good and has the foundation of nationalization. In recent years, China central television publicity and broadcasting has continued to improve brand awareness. GU20 focuses on group buying channels, strictly controls the price, and forms good potential energy. In terms of channels, supplement the layout of the market around Anhui through the acquisition of Yellow Crane Tower and gradually realize the expansion outside the province. 3. The reform of the company’s system and mechanism is expected to continue, reduce the sales expense rate, improve the enthusiasm of the team and create better shareholder returns. From the perspective of brand power, channel power and marketing power, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) has the opportunity and ability of nationalization and has the logic of long-term growth.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize revenue of 13.271 billion yuan, 16.082 billion yuan and 19.157 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 22.91, 29.71 and 38.35 yuan, corresponding EPS of 4.33, 5.62 and 7.26 yuan / share, corresponding PE (2022 / 3 / 9) of 45.5x, 35.1x and 27.2x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemics, intensified market competition and other risks.
