\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 808 Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) )
Event overview
According to the company's operating data for 21 years, the company's revenue in 2021 was about 2.3-2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% - 22.3%, an increase of about 3-7% over the main revenue in 19 years (excluding 380 million yuan of baiqiu e-commerce revenue); The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 310330 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8% - 30.3%, an increase of 7-14% compared with the net profit of the main garment industry in 19 years (excluding the contribution of baiqiu e-commerce net profit of 68 million yuan). The decline in 2020 was mainly affected by the one-time income from the sale of baiqiu in 2020 and an increase of 37-47% year-on-year in 2020 after excluding the influence; The net profit deducted from non profits was about 260280 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.7% - 47.2%. The income is in line with the expectation, and the net profit is lower than the expectation.
The revenue of 21q4 company was about 627727 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2-18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 66-86 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17-36%, an increase of - 18% to + 6% compared with 19 years. Q4 still maintained a relatively stable performance under the influence of adverse factors such as warm winter and epidemic situation.
Analysis and judgment:
In terms of sub brands, the growth rate of IRO and ED improved month on month, laurel and SP accelerated, and iro declined compared with 19 years due to the depreciation of the euro. In 2021, the revenue of golex, laurel, ed hardy, iro and SP was 1.022/2.46/3.07/593175 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 9% / 68% / 43% / 9% / 432%, an increase of - 2% / 110% / - 17% / - 12% / - compared with that in 19 years; The revenue of 21q4 Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) , laurel, ed hardy, iro and SP was 3.32/0.82/0.84/141/53 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% / 53% / 62% / - 5% / 142%, an increase of 8% / 122% / 49% / - 21% / - compared with 19q4, and the growth rate of average revenue except iro showed a month-on-month improvement (21q3 increased by - 16% / 116% / - 8% / - compared with 19q3). Among them, iro was mainly affected by the depreciation of the euro (the annual exchange rate decreased by 10.5%), In the second half of the year, the release of overseas epidemic prevention and control at the retail end recovered significantly. In the whole year of 21 years, SP was only established for more than one year and has realized a revenue of nearly 200 million yuan. At present, it has become the largest brand on tmall platform of the company; Ed Hardy and Ed Hardy X brand actively develop tiktok based e-commerce platform in Hong Kong and Macao, where the income is continuously affected by the epidemic.
Investment advice
Looking forward to 2022, (1) the main brand is expected to continue to recover; (2) Laurel and SP are expected to continue high growth; (3) With the further improvement of the overseas epidemic, iro is expected to continue the improvement trend. According to the performance forecast, the revenue forecast for the year 21 / 22 / 23 was adjusted from 2355 / 2661 / 298 million yuan to 2355 / 2707 / 3059 million yuan, the net profit forecast for the parent company was reduced from 362 / 422 / 486 million yuan to 320 / 384 / 441 million yuan, and the EPS was reduced from 1.09/1.27/1.46 yuan to 0.87/1.04/1.19 yuan. The closing price on March 10, 2022 was 12.02 yuan, corresponding to 14 / 12 / 10x PE for the year 21 / 22 / 23, Equity incentive is expected to boost market confidence and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of epidemic development; The opening of the store was not as expected; The development of new brands is not as expected; Destocking is less than expected; Systemic risk
