\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Key investment points:
Event: on March 10, 2022, the company issued an announcement on the main business conditions from January to February 2022. After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 21.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 15% over the same period of last year; The total profit was about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year.
Comments:
The company made a good start as scheduled in 2022, and the demand for dairy products continued to rise. Under the influence of repeated epidemics, residents' health awareness has gradually improved, and the demand for dairy products continues to rise. From January to February 2022, the terminal dynamic sales of the company's products performed well, the overall performance hit a new record, the inventory of core products was at a benign level, and the company made a good start as scheduled. From January to February 2022, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 21.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 15% year-on-year; The total profit is expected to be about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 20%.
Continue to optimize the product structure and launch new products to meet the diversified needs of the market. From January to February 2022, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, dairy products, cold drinks and other businesses maintained a certain growth. Among them, the proportion of sales revenue of key products such as Jindian, amuxi and jinlingguan increased by about 3 percentage points year-on-year, and the product structure continued to be optimized. The company's jinlingguan infant formula was the first to complete the formula upgrade and become the first batch of infant formula in China that meets the new national standard of milk powder. It is expected that the company's sales revenue of jinlingguan will increase by more than 30% year-on-year from January to February 2022. While optimizing the product structure, the company launched a number of new products, such as "Jindian ultrafiltration milk", "amushidandong strawberry", "Chang light protein time", "jinlingguansenamu organic milk powder" and "xujihuan thick milk ice cream", so as to meet the diversified needs of the market and further improve the competitiveness of products.
Strengthen brand marketing and further improve market penetration. As a sponsor of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, the company has carried out marketing and integration of the brand through Winter Olympics and Spring Festival Promotion, and further improved the brand influence. According to the third-party research data, consumers' willingness to buy Yili products reached a record high during this period, and the market penetration of products was further improved. According to the announcement released by the company, the market penetration of the company's products in prefecture level cities and county-level cities increased by 0.6 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively year-on-year.
The company recently successfully acquired Aoyou by tender offer, which is expected to give full play to the synergy advantage of the industrial chain. In order to strengthen the company's market competitiveness in the subdivided field of infant formula milk powder and nutritional food, the company recently successfully made an offer to acquire Aoyou dairy. Aoyou dairy is one of the earliest milk powder enterprises in the industry to carry out global layout. Sheep milk powder has a certain competitive advantage in the world. The successful tender offer of Aoyou dairy is expected to improve the company's follow-up products and supply chain structure, laying a solid foundation for the company to achieve its strategic objectives.
Maintain recommended ratings. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2022 will be 1.42 yuan and 1.72 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 26 times and 21 times respectively. As a leading enterprise in China's dairy industry, in October 2020, the chairman of the company put forward the medium-term goal of entering the "top three global dairy industries" in 2025 and the long-term goal of realizing the "first global dairy industry" in 2030. Under the catalysis of multiple factors such as the slowdown of upstream cost rising pressure, the maintenance of demand and the optimization and upgrading of product structure, the company's performance is expected to have further upward space and high-quality development can be expected. Maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk warning. Raw material price fluctuation risk, product promotion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and food safety risk.
