\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 938 Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) )
Core view
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations and the performance has increased significantly. In 2021, the annual revenue was 1.599 billion yuan (+ 58.9%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 336 million yuan (+ 244.8%), and the performance was in the median value of the performance forecast (326345 million yuan), which was in line with the expectation. In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 467 million yuan (year-on-year + 75.8%, month on month - 6.0%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 89 million yuan (year-on-year + 192.6%, month on month - 10.3%). The company's annual gross profit margin was 33.84%, a year-on-year increase of 12.88pcts; Due to the substantial growth of revenue, the expense rate decreased slightly, and the three fee rate of the whole year was 4.08%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.79pcts; The R & D expenditure was 70 million yuan (+ 62.7%), and the revenue accounted for 4.39%, a slight increase of 0.11 PCTs compared with 2020, and the net interest rate was 20.99%, a significant increase of 11.31 PCTs year-on-year.
Benefiting from the rising prosperity of trichlorosilane, the production capacity of high-purity silicon tetrachloride is released. The company's revenue and profit increased significantly. On the one hand, the company's main product trichlorosilane was driven by the growth of downstream polysilicon market demand, and the price increased significantly. The company's annual revenue of trichlorosilane was 530 million yuan (+ 121.6%), the sales volume was 59500 tons (- 2.4%), the average price was 8905 yuan / ton (+ 127.1%), and the average prices of Q1-Q4 were 5593 / 7457 / 10484 / 14416 yuan / ton respectively. The volume and price of the company's high-purity silicon tetrachloride increased simultaneously. The phase II project (20000 tons / year) was put into operation in July 2021, with a total capacity of 30000 tons / year. The company's annual revenue of high-purity silicon tetrachloride was 170 million yuan (+ 219.0%), the sales volume was 16600 tons (+ 82.6%), the average price was 10245 yuan / ton (+ 74.7%), and the average prices of Q1-Q4 were 5274 / 6860 / 8700 / 17285 yuan / ton respectively.
A large number of polycrystalline silicon has been put into production, which has greatly expanded the price difference of trichlorosilane, and is optimistic about the high prosperity of trichlorosilane throughout the year. Recently, driven by the demand for downstream polysilicon, the price of trichlorosilane has risen sharply. On March 1, the industrial grade price of Baichuan Yingfu trichlorosilane increased by 3000 yuan to 17500 yuan / ton, and the photovoltaic grade increased by 6500 yuan to 25000 yuan / ton. According to SMM data, the price of trichlorosilane has recently risen to 2200024500 yuan / ton. As the price of industrial silicon, the main raw material, rose slightly, the price difference expanded significantly. According to the current quotation, the gross profit of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane can reach more than 10000 yuan / ton. The company is the leader of trichlorosilane in China. The existing main production capacity includes 65000 tons of trichlorosilane, 30000 tons of high-purity silicon tetrachloride, 56000 tons of potassium hydroxide and 100000 tons of potassium sulfate. The new production capacity of 50000 tons of trichlorosilane and 20000 tons of silicon tetrachloride is expected to be put into trial production in the third quarter of 2022 to improve the profitability of the company.
Risk tip: downstream polysilicon demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. The company's profit forecast for 20222023 was raised. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 will be 746 / 932 million yuan (the original value is 727 / 904 million yuan), and the profit forecast for 2024 will be increased by 1.010 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122 / 25 / 8%; Diluted EPS = 3.82/4.77/5.17 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 12 / 10 / 9x. The company fully benefited from the high boom of trichlorosilane and silicon tetrachloride industries and maintained the "buy" rating.
