\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
The Spring Festival sales of dairy products are good, the net interest rate can be steadily improved, and the “buy” rating can be maintained
After preliminary accounting, from January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 21.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 15% year-on-year; The total profit is expected to be about 3.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.02 billion yuan, 10.64 billion yuan and 12.51 billion yuan, and EPS will be 1.41, 1.66 and 1.95 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 26.1, 22.1 and 18.8 times. The company’s share continues to improve and the multi business layout. In the long run, the profitability can be steadily improved and the “buy” rating can be maintained.
2022q1 has made a good start to the Spring Festival, and the normal temperature milk and milk powder businesses have grown rapidly
In 2022, the Spring Festival was earlier, the dealers prepared goods in advance and the demand for terminal dairy products was strong. The company made a good start to the Spring Festival, and the revenue from January to February increased by more than 15% year-on-year. Specifically: (1) during the Spring Festival, there is a strong demand for gifts, and the growth rate of Jindian, anmushi and other high-end products is fast. In January, normal temperature white milk increased by 12.6% year-on-year, and Jindian increased by 15.1% year-on-year; (2) With the formula upgrading and channel optimization, the milk powder business grew rapidly. From January to February 2022, jinlingguan increased by more than 30% year-on-year; (3) The cheese business doubled year-on-year Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) tender offer for Aoyou is successful. The two sides can cooperate deeply in milk sources, channels and products, which will help the company achieve the medium-term strategic goal of No. 1 in the industry. Looking forward to the whole year, with the steady growth of liquid milk and the rapid development of milk powder and cheese business, the company’s annual revenue is expected to continue to increase steadily.
The product structure continues to upgrade, the rate is relatively stable, and the company’s net profit margin continues to increase
From January to February 2022, the total profit of the company increased by more than 20%, and the rapid profit growth was mainly due to: (1) the product structure was better during the Spring Festival, and the proportion of key products such as Jindian, amuxi and jinlingguan increased by 3PCT year-on-year from January to February; (2) The industry competition is more rational, and the promotion of basic white milk is less. During the Winter Olympic Games, it is expected that the online cost investment in 2022q1 will increase, but the cost investment efficiency is high, which will help to improve the brand strength of the company. From January to February 2022, the sales growth rate of the parent brand will reach 22%, and the market penetration of Prefecture level cities and county-level cities will increase by 0.6 and 1.2pct year-on-year. Looking forward to the whole year, it is expected that the increase of raw milk price will slow down in 2022, but it is still at a high level. The industry competition is rational. The company can alleviate the cost pressure by reducing buying gifts and continuous upgrading; Under the scale effect, the annual rate is relatively stable, and the net interest rate can be increased continuously.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion less than expected, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc.
