\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021.
Key investment points
The performance deviates from the forecast upper limit, and the profit growth rate is higher than the income growth rate under the scale effect
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 63%, which deviated from the upper limit of 580680 million yuan in the performance forecast range, exceeding our expectations; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 76%. In Q4 single quarter, the revenue was 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56%. Under the effect of scale, the profit growth rate was higher than the income growth rate.
Profitability increased steadily and continued to increase R & D investment
In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 38.3%, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3pct, mainly due to the company’s continuous R & D and cost reduction, domestic substitution of raw materials and parts, and the increase of bargaining power with the increase of procurement scale, so that the gross profit margin of the company’s products increased while keeping the price basically unchanged; The net profit margin of sales was 20.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.3pct. The comprehensive gross profit margin of Q4 single quarter was 38.1%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.5pct; The net profit margin of sales was 20%, year-on-year + 1.5pct.
In 2021, the company’s expense ratio was 19.2%, year-on-year + 1.9pct, of which the sales expense ratio was 6.4%, year-on-year + 1.4pct; The management expense ratio (including R & D) was 13.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.1pct. In 2021, the company’s R & D investment was 330 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 100%. The R & D investment accounted for 10.7% of the operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.5pct. By the end of 2021, the company had 899 R & D personnel, with a year-on-year increase of + 131%, accounting for 33% of the total number of employees. The company continued to increase R & D investment and continuously developed products for hjt New products in OLED field; The financial expense ratio was – 0.9%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.5pct.
Contract liabilities & high increase in inventories and strong certainty of performance growth
By the end of 2021, the company’s contractual liabilities were 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50%, indicating that the company had sufficient orders on hand; The inventory was 2.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34%, mainly due to the large number of goods issued, which was 1.91 billion yuan, accounting for 68% of the inventory. However, the company’s inventory turnover speed was fast, and the turnover days in 2021 were 462 days, a year-on-year decrease of 35 days. In terms of net cash flow from operating activities, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities has remained positive since 2020q4. In 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities was 660 million yuan, an increase of 75% year-on-year, mainly due to the high growth of the company’s revenue and the increase of prepayments paid by customers.
The new capacity of hjt increases rapidly, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt will be accelerated in 2022
We estimate that the new capacity of hjt will be about 20-30gw in 2022, and the new capacity will enter a non-linear high growth in 2023. Assuming that the market share of longyi equipment manufacturer Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) is 70% + (72% in 2021), that is, about 20gwhjt orders in Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 2022, that is, the order scale of the main photovoltaic industry can reach 8 billion yuan. In 2022, hjt’s cost reduction and efficiency increase accelerated, including “microcrystalline technology with mass production efficiency of 25% + smbb + silver clad copper + domestic silver slurry + wafer slicing” and other technologies have been introduced into mass production. We expect that the manufacturing cost per w of perc will be leveled by the end of 2022. In 2023, both new and old players in the industry will start a large-scale expansion of hjt. Under neutral assumptions, the expansion of the industry in 2023 can reach more than 50gw.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the leader of hjt whole line equipment with first mover advantage, the company fully benefits from the accelerated production expansion of hjt battery, and the long-term layout of Pan semiconductor field opens a broad growth space. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 919 / 13.99 / 2.169 billion, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price will be 64 / 42 / 27 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D of new products is less than the market expectation, and the expansion of hjt equipment is less than the market expectation.
