\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 486 Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) )
Performance review
On March 9, the company released the main operating data from January to February. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, from January to February 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 3.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 50% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 100%. Performance exceeded expectations. Business analysis
After the third quarter of the year, the bottom of the company's product price has reversed. At present, the price has decreased compared with the third quarter of the year, but increased significantly year-on-year. We believe that the transaction price of the company's products in the past 22 years is higher than that in the past 21 years. In the long cycle, the pesticide industry has reversed from the bottom after the third quarter of the year. In terms of product price, the current quotation of the main pesticide product Kungfu pyrethrin is 230000 yuan / ton, the current quotation of bifenthrin is 315000 yuan / ton, and the current quotation of the main herbicide product glyphosate is 70000 yuan / ton. Most of the company's Glyphosate are long orders, and the average transaction price in 22 years is higher than that in 21 years; In terms of fungicides, the company quoted 185000 yuan / ton for Difenoconazole, 255000 yuan / ton for pyrazole and 205000 yuan / ton for propiconazole. In terms of price, the price of agrochemical products soared rapidly under the influence of the power restriction policy from September to October of 21 years. From October to December, with the influence of the power restriction policy fading, the price of agrochemical products corrected. From January to February of 22 years, pesticide products showed a high shock trend. At present, the price of most pesticide products is in the historical quantile of 60-70%. We believe that, The price of pesticide products will fluctuate at a high level in 22 years, and the company's profit will continue to improve.
Youjia phase IV has made a positive contribution to the performance. According to the company's announcement and project acceptance report, some Youjia phase IV projects of the company have been put into operation. In December 2021, the projects with an annual output of 3800 tons of bifenthrin, 1000 tons of haloperidol, 6000 tons of nitrosulfuron, 3000 tons of Difenoconazole, 2000 tons of propiconazole and 3000 tons of chloroacetophenone and their by-products were completed, and the commissioning began in January 2022. We believe that Youjia phase IV will make a positive contribution to the company's performance in 2022.
Investment advice
Considering the reversal of the company's product price bottom and the gradual production of Youjia phase IV, we revised the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 1.2333 (- 20.9%), 21.51 (+ 17.5%) and 2.381 (+ 13.3%) billion respectively (the previous value is predicted to be RMB 1.56 billion, RMB 1.83 billion and RMB 2.1 billion). EPS is 3.98 yuan, 6.94 yuan and 7.69 yuan respectively. The current market value corresponding to PE is 28.67x/16.43x/14.84x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The capacity release of Youjia project is less than expected; The price of pesticide products fell; Demand for pesticides fell.
