\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 68 Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) )
In 2022, the company’s comprehensive bank credit line increased by 167%; The business scale is expected to expand rapidly
\u3000\u30001. The company announced that the comprehensive bank credit line available to the company in 2022 was 24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167% compared with 9 billion yuan in 2021.
\u3000\u30002. From 2015 to 2022, the comprehensive bank credit lines available to the company are 9.8 billion / 9 billion / 8 billion / 8.4 billion / 9.9 billion / 8 billion / 9 billion / 24 billion respectively. The substantial increase of credit lines in 2022 may indicate that the business scale and capital demand of the company will increase significantly in 2022.
\u3000\u30003. The substantial increase of comprehensive credit line also reflects the cash flow situation of the company in 2022. Previously, Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) / Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) / Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) and other defense main engine plants received large contract liabilities, Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) as the same type of aircraft main engine, under the background of large product volume, it is estimated that they are also expected to receive large advance payment from downstream customers, which will help alleviate the pressure on the company’s capital.
\u3000\u30004. Large amount credit reflects the company’s good credit qualification and the high recognition of financial enterprises for the development trend of the company’s follow-up business, and the business boom will be upward in the future. The flexible use of credit line will help the company organize production according to plan and efficiently and ensure the successful completion of annual tasks.
The military industry sector has entered a two wheel drive sweet period of “business cycle + asset integration” and continues to be recommended
\u3000\u30001. The military industry of national defense has a high growth certainty. In 2022, it entered a two wheel drive sweet period of “business cycle + asset integration” and “endogenous + extension”. In the follow-up, “domestic demand + foreign trade” and “military products + civilian products”, the military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter ranks first.
\u3000\u30002. We are optimistic about the missile / information technology / air launch / military aircraft sub industry, and continue to recommend Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) and other national defense hosts with flexible performance in the next five years.
\u3000\u30003. Continue to be optimistic about the middle and upper reaches sub circuits with high technical barriers, high scarcity and good competition pattern: superalloy / composite materials / midstream component level supporting enterprises / engine forging and casting / information core midstream, etc.
The company is the only platform for military large and medium-sized aircraft, and the compound growth rate of performance is expected to exceed 30% in the next three years
1. The company is the only manufacturer of large and medium-sized military aircraft in China. The company is expected to monopolize two of the main models in the “20” era of the air force. It will fully enjoy the broad market of the three branches of transport aircraft / bomber / special aircraft, and deeply participate in the supporting of C919 / ARJ21 civil aircraft. High certainty of long-term growth;
2. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 930 / 12.7 / 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19% / 37% / 36%, EPS will be RMB 0.34/0.46/0.63, PE will be 89 / 65 / 48 times, PS will be 3.2 / 2.5 / 2.1 times, and the PE center of the company in recent five years will be 87 times. Continuous recommendation.
Risk warning: the delivery progress of the company’s products is less than expected; The development progress of key models is less than expected.
