\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 09 Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co.Ltd(300409) )
Investment logic
Lithium battery materials: straighten out the governance, focus on the core business, and new materials are expected to accelerate the shift. In the early stage, the company carried out diversified layout, such as the layout of conductive agent, ternary cathode, hydrogen energy, mica lithium extraction and other industries. Hydrogen energy mica lithium extraction has begun to peel off gradually and began to focus on conductive agent and ternary precursor. The conductive agent ternary precursor was combed in many aspects in terms of organizational structure, and the capacity expansion and strategic layout were accelerated.
1) conductive agent: carbon tube has penetrated all over the world, and the company has accelerated its catch-up. Under the trend of silicon-based & fast charging, the penetration of carbon tubes is accelerated. We predict that the global demand for carbon tube slurry is expected to exceed 470000 tons in 2025. The company's subsidiaries enter Byd Company Limited(002594) and other supply chains with graphene carbon tube (mainly purchased in the early stage). In terms of technology, the fifth generation single wall carbon tube has been developed, and 750 tons of powder capacity has been added by the end of 2021. In 2021, the company bound the core figure of conductive agent Wang Kunming with equity incentive, integrated carbon materials into Griffin platform, and further improved the layout of conductive agent industry chain.
2) precursor: the release of production capacity is accelerated and the integration continues to deepen. Capacity: the company has set up a five-year plan, with a target capacity of 500000 tons in 2025 and an average annual production capacity of 100000 tons. After reaching the production capacity, the company will be among the first-line in the industry. Integration: local war investment is introduced to provide financial support. The company has a deep industrial chain foundation in cobalt integration, continues to scale up the integrated layout of upstream nickel and cobalt resources, and the cost side is expected to be further optimized.
Traditional ceramic materials: the leading position is stable, and the market share is expected to increase. In recent years, the downstream ceramic tiles have gradually entered the stock period, but the requirements for material quality have been continuously improved. With the continuous clearing of production capacity, it is expected to promote the concentration of ceramic materials industry. The company is a leader in the ceramic material industry, and its share is expected to increase.
Investment advice
We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 555, 741 and 948 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.96, 1.28 and 1.64 yuan, and corresponding PE of 23.70, 17.8 and 13.9 times. Using PE valuation method, we give the company an overall valuation of 35 times in 2022, with a target price of 44.8 yuan, covering it for the first time, and give the company a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The downstream demand is lower than the expected risk, the risk of deterioration of the industrial competition pattern, the risk of capacity construction is lower than the expected risk, and the risk of new customer expansion is lower than the expected risk.
