\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Events
On March 10, the company released the operating data from January to February, during which the total revenue was about 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 120% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 465 million yuan, an increase of about 130% at the same time.
Business analysis
The performance greatly exceeded expectations, and the drunkard participated in two-wheel drive. From January to February, the income increased sharply. The judgment is as follows: 1) although the epidemic has a heavy impact on Henan, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places, Hunan, as a province with a large net outflow of population, has fully benefited from the Spring Festival return tide. Although the performance of Shandong is weaker than that of Hunan, it is still better. 2) 21q4 destocking and rhythm control (only + 9% of revenue in a single quarter), energy storage will make a good start in the coming year. 3) The contribution increment of new dealers in 21 years. From January to February, the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 1-2pct year-on-year. According to channel feedback, the internal reference made a good start, with a payment of 40% +, and the drunkard paid 35-40% (an increase of 5pct year-on-year). It is expected that the product structure will continue to upgrade.
In the past 22 years, the core focus has been on mobile marketing, and the process of nationalization has accelerated. The progress of recruiting large merchants and excellent merchants has slowed down. In the past 22 years, the scope of investment attraction has focused on small merchants with specialty store projects and sinking channels. It is expected that dynamic sales will be the core of driving growth. 1) In terms of products, it is estimated that the internal reference of the report end will be 1 billion +, the drunkard series will be about 1.9 billion (accounting for more than 25% of the transparent clothes, 20% of the red altar and more than 10% of the inheritance), Xiangquan will be more than 100 million and the internal products will be more than 200 million. Within 22 years, the sales target is 2.445-3 billion (1.7-1.8 billion in 21 years). In the early stage, the price in some regions is unstable, and the price is straightened out after the goods are stopped (the wholesale price in neishen province is 820830). In the short term, the internal reference focuses on scale. The new version of the Spring Festival has been paid. It is expected that the subsequent increase in the proportion will further raise the rating. Drunkard series accumulates strength to create a large waist single product. The price of 300 yuan is mainly transparent, and the price of 400 yuan is mainly transparent. The core outside the province is hongtan 20 and inheritance, and the focus of hongtan 18 in the province. It is judged that it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20-30% in 22 years.
2) by Region: in the past 21 years, the sales caliber of Henan internal ginseng was nearly 200 million, 400 million drunkards, 100 million Shandong internal ginseng, 200300 million drunkards, 100 million Beijing Tianjin Hebei internal ginseng and 100 million East China internal ginseng. The strategy of strengthening the base Market (Henan, Shandong and Hebei), building a highland market (Beijing, East China and Guangdong) and deep nationalization will be carried out in 22 years. Many places with internal participation are still in the development stage, and the high growth in North China, East China and South China can be expected; Drunkards themselves have a good foundation in the highland market, and will focus on deep dynamic marketing in 22 years.
3) profit side: the expense rate is expected to be amortized for a long time, and the product structure is continuously optimized. The revenue of the 14th five year plan is equal to 10 billion, and the profit is equal to 3.3-3.4 billion (CAGR in 21-25 years is about 30% and 38%).
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the revenue growth rate to be 86% / 37% / 30%, the profit growth rate to be 88% / 57% / 38% and the corresponding EPS to be 2.85/4.46/6.16 yuan respectively in 21-23 years. The current share price corresponding to PE is 56 / 36 / 26x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The progress of nationalization is not as expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, macroeconomic risk and food safety problems.
