\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 96 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) )
Performance review
The company released its performance express on March 10. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 13.271 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 28.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.54%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.201 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.14%. 21q4 revenue was 3.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 322 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.66%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company was 299 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.06%.
Business analysis
21q4 revenue slightly exceeded expectations, and the profit was disturbed by expenses in the short term. Combined with channel feedback, we expect that the revenue of Gu 8 and above will account for 40-50% in 21 years, Gu 20 will continue to increase at a high rate, Gu 16 or nearly double, Gu 8 will increase by more than 20%, Gu 5, gift control and price protection, and the product structure will continue to be optimized. The non deduction interest rate of Q4 is -2.8pct year-on-year, which is expected to be the advance of the Spring Festival, and the confirmation of advertising (sponsoring the Spring Festival Gala) and promotion expenses increases.
22q1 has a promising start and is optimistic about the logic of Hui liquor upgrading + efficiency enhancement. According to channel feedback, Anhui has a strong atmosphere of returning home during the Spring Festival and is less affected by the epidemic. Gujing has a good start, accounting for + 5-10pct year-on-year. At present, the wholesale prices of gu5, gu8 and GU20 are 110 / 220 / 550 yuan respectively. The inventory is lower than that in the same period of previous years, and the growth rate of Q1 collection is expected to be 20-30%. We believe that Huijiu will benefit from returning home in the short term, and the long-term structural upgrading will continue. Gujing, as longyi, will fully benefit. In 22 years, the company will focus on products of gu8 and above (accounting for 50% of the expected), GU20 will drive the brand, gu16 will break through the banquet market with high channel profits, and the target growth rate of gu8 and above at the channel end will exceed 30%, offering gifts and making steady progress in 5 years. 22 years, stock incentive is expected to fall. The net interest rate of the company is low in the Baijiu section, and there is room for improvement in the cost and personnel efficiency.
Profit forecast
We expect that the revenue growth rate of the company in 21-23 years will be 29% / 23% / 20% respectively, corresponding to a revenue of 13.3/16.3/19.6 billion yuan; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 24% / 32% / 24% respectively, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 23 / 3 / 3.8 billion; EPS is 4.34/5.74/7.14 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 46 / 35 / 28x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of intensified competition in Huijiu market, the risk of macroeconomic downturn and food safety.
