\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 47 Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) )
Key investment points
2021q4 revenue exceeded expectations and continued to accelerate year-on-year in the quarter
Performance express: the company realized a revenue of 5.214 billion (yoy63.32%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.874 billion (yoy64.26%), and a deduction of non profit of 1.232 billion (yoy73.90%). 202104 realized revenue of 1.819 billion yuan (yoy103.87%), net profit attributable to parent company of 1.094 billion yuan (yoy153.28%), net profit deducted of 363 million yuan (yoy71.81%). The year-on-year growth rate of 2021q1-q4 revenue continued the quarterly acceleration trend, and the revenue side exceeded our previous expectation. We expect that it may be related to the higher than expected confirmation of covid-19 order.
According to our split: in 2021, the clinical trial technology revenue yoy will reach 95% (in which the large clinical revenue yoy is expected to be around 100%), and the clinical trial consulting service revenue yoy35% (in which the data series yoy is about 30%, and the laboratory service revenue yoy is expected to be around 45%). We expect that the higher than expected revenue side is related to covid-19 order confirmation. According to the express data, the non net profit margin deducted in 202104 is expected to be 19.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.72pct. We expect it to be related to the high handling fee contained in the large clinical orders confirmed in 202104. From January to February, the newly signed & revenue exceeded expectations and is optimistic about the high growth of revenue in 2022
The company announced: “from January to February 2022, the newly signed orders increased by more than 65% year-on-year, and the operating revenue increased by more than 100% year-on-year”. We believe that the high growth of the company’s newly signed orders may be the continuous embodiment of the company’s leading effect as a clinical cro, and the company’s ability continues to be recognized by customers. We also continue to be optimistic that the company’s newly signed orders will maintain a high growth trend in 2022.
Referring to the data of orders in hand released by the company in 2021h1, and the year-on-year growth of new orders from January to February 2022, which is more than 65%, and the year-on-year growth of revenue is more than 100%, we expect that the revenue side of the company is still expected to maintain high growth in 2022.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the recognition of the company’s 2021q4 revenue side exceeded our expectations, we raised the revenue of 2021. We expect the company’s EPS to be 3.29, 3.88 and 4.67 yuan / share from 2021 to 2023. The closing price on March 10, 2022 corresponds to 22 times of PE in 2022 (18 times of PE in 2023). At present, the company’s valuation is at a historically low level and the leading barrier continues to be reflected. It is optimistic about the clinical cro market of Chinese innovative drugs and the future growth of Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) as a leader, and it is recommended to “buy”.
Risk tips
The risk of deterioration of investment and financing of innovative drugs, the risk of fluctuation of clinical trial policies, the risk of new business integration falling short of expectations, and the risk of performance falling short of expectations.
