\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 56 Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) )
The world's leading invisible sunscreen, sunscreen & synthetic flavor: the main business is the production of sunscreen / synthetic flavor, and the products enter the international mainstream supply chain system, such as DSM / P & G / L'Oreal / Johnson & Johnson / chihuarton / fenmeiyi / IFF / dizhixin, etc. The company is a global leader in sunscreen, accounting for 27.88% of the market in 19 years according to the prospectus. From 15 to 19 years, the compound growth rate of revenue / net profit was 24% / 64%, the 20-year revenue was 1 billion yuan, down 8% at the same time, the net profit was 163 million yuan, up 6.35% at the same time, and the net interest rate was 16%. The performance of 21h1 was still under pressure, Q3 increased 22% with the release of new production capacity, and the net profit increased 0.48%.
Overseas businesses are expected to benefit from the global fine division of labor and the recovery of epidemic repair orders: sunscreen was monopolized by Desun / BASF / DSM in the past. In recent years, Chinese and Indian enterprises eroded the leading market share through low prices. International enterprises shifted their strategic focus to terminal product research and market development, and medium and low-end sunscreen / synthetic spices and intermediate products were purchased from China and India; The company's overseas business revenue has decreased by 10% and 17% in 20 years and 21h1 respectively. In the future, with the repair of overseas epidemic, orders are expected to pick up.
China's business benefited from the upgrading of sunscreen consumption, strengthened supervision of cosmetics and customer expansion: the terminal retail sales of sunscreen products in China reached 16.5 billion yuan in 21 years, with a compound growth of 12% in 16-21 years and rapid development. The new regulations force new products to provide efficacy verification reports, increasing the industry's demand for active raw materials. As a leader, the company hopes to give priority to benefits. In addition, the company has continued to expand its Chinese customers and accelerated its growth since the outbreak of the epidemic in the past 20 years. The revenue of 20 / 21h1 increased by 13.46% / 44.41% respectively, and the proportion increased to 17%.
By the end of the 20th year, the production capacity of cosmetics active ingredients and their raw materials was 23800 tons / year, with a utilization rate of 61.66% (of which the utilization rate of main products was as high as 99%), and the utilization rate of synthetic spices was 9800 tons / year, with a utilization rate of 93%. As of August 21, the new production capacity of 11500 tons of sunscreen and its raw materials and 6000 tons of synthetic spices had been put into production. The company has cooperated with anqing / Nanjing Jiangning for 21 years to enter the field of high-end personal care and expand new fields.
Investment advice
The company is the leader of invisible sunscreen in the world. In the long term, the overseas business will benefit from the re division of the global industrial chain, the Chinese business will benefit from the strengthening of environmental protection and the supervision of cosmetics raw materials, the short-term overseas epidemic will be gradually repaired, and the Chinese business will strengthen customer expansion. In the future, the company's revenue end rate will be the first, and the profit end will show a quarterly improvement trend.
It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.49/1.98/2.39 yuan respectively. Referring to the valuation level of peers, it is recommended to give the company 22 times valuation in 22 years, with the corresponding target price of 43.56 yuan, and give a "overweight" rating.
Risk
The new production capacity is less than expected; High proportion of major customers; Rising raw material costs; The ban on restricted shares was lifted.
