\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 887 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) )
Event: the company disclosed its operating data and realized a total operating revenue of about 21.5 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of more than 15% over the same period of last year; The total profit was about 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20% over the same period last year, exceeding market expectations.
The product structure continues to be optimized, and the old products + new products work together. 1. Key products continued to grow. The proportion of sales revenue of key products such as Jindian, amuxi, jinlingguan, qiaolez, Zhen Xi, Changqing, meiyitian and Yili children’s cheese stick increased by 3PP year-on-year. The epidemic has catalyzed the outbreak of white milk demand, and Jindian and basic white milk have achieved rapid growth; With the continuous promotion of channel sinking and less restrictions on returning home during festivals, Jindian, which has the dual attributes of ready to drink and gift giving, has a good momentum of dynamic sales during the Spring Festival, leading the growth rate of normal temperature milk; Basic white milk launched Zhennong series to drive growth through supplementary product items and packaging. The growth rate of jinlingguan is more than 30%. It has taken the lead in completing the formula upgrade and become the fastest growing infant powder. 2. Innovation drives growth. Amuxi introduced new flavors such as pineapple and Dandong strawberry to drive the growth of normal temperature yogurt category; The low-temperature category launched Jindian ultrafiltration milk with high protein, high calcium and low fat to promote the upgrading of low-temperature milk.
The channel advantage is consolidated and the brand potential is improved. 1. Channel sinking continued to advance and actively embrace new channels. As the penetration rate of 2PP and 6PP outlets at the county level and the city level is further improved, the penetration rate of 2PP and 6PP outlets at the county level and the city level will be further improved, respectively. In addition, the company actively embraces new retail channels and works together online and offline to build an integrated channel advantage. 2. The Winter Olympics + Spring Festival promotion will jointly enhance the brand potential energy, the brand strength will reach a new level, and consumers’ willingness to buy Yili products will reach a new high.
The control of milk source is strengthened, and the continuous growth can be expected. The company actually controls Youran animal husbandry. Youran animal husbandry acquires secosin and Fonterra China ranch, and wholesome Harvest Limited acquires Zhongdi dairy. The milk source controlled by equity accounts for about 30%. In addition, the company and its core suppliers jointly plan and build a milk source base, give full play to the value of the whole industry chain and further improve the ability of milk source control. As the supply and demand of raw milk tends to balance, the company continues to upgrade its product structure, rationalize its investment expenses, and significantly improve its profitability. Double click upward is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 9.17 billion yuan, 11.49 billion yuan and 13.6 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.43 yuan, 1.80 yuan and 2.12 yuan respectively. The corresponding dynamic PE will be 26 times, 20 times and 17 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the price of raw milk fluctuates greatly; Industry competition intensifies; Food safety risks.
