\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) )
Matters:
The company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 will be 1.96 billion yuan to 2.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144% to 157%.
Guoxin chemical’s view: 1) benefiting from the rise of international oil and gas prices and China’s control over coal supply, the company’s main product volume and price rise together, driving a substantial increase in performance; 2) During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the expansion of Malang coal mine and Qidong LNG terminal is the main growth point of the company, which is optimistic about the gradual improvement of performance; 3) In the next stage, the company will transform to the field of green energy and step to a new level of development; 4) Against the background of the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, we raised our profit forecast for 21-23 years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 49 / 91 / 10.4 billion yuan (originally 45 / 60 / 6.5 billion yuan), EPS will be 0.73/1.35/1.54 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 10.0/5.4/4.7x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Comments:
The volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, driving the substantial growth of performance
We believe that the company’s performance increased significantly in the first quarter, mainly due to the continuous rise of global oil and gas prices caused by geopolitical factors, which led to a significant increase in the prices of upstream energy and chemicals, and benefited from the increase in coal prices brought by the strict control of China’s coal supply, The profitability of the company’s main products increased to a certain extent in the first quarter, both year-on-year and month on month.
LNG of liquefied natural gas: the sales volume from January to February increased by about 10% year-on-year, of which the sales volume of Qidong LNG increased by 17% year-on-year; In March, the average selling price of LNG market in different gas sources increased by about 77-171% year-on-year and 28-30% month on month.
Coal: from January to February, the foreign sales volume increased by about 17% year-on-year; The sales price of the company’s coal market in each segment increased by about 47-164% year-on-year in March, which was basically the same month on month.
Methanol: from January to February, the sales volume decreased by about 6% year-on-year; In March, the average sales price of methanol in China increased by about 49% year-on-year and 19% month on month. Coal based oil products: from January to February, the sales volume increased by about 29% year-on-year; In March, the average market sales price of coal based oil products increased by about 118% year-on-year and 30% month on month.
The expansion of Malang coal mine and Qidong LNG terminal is worth looking forward to
At present, the main projects under construction of the company are Malang coal mine, Qidong LNG terminal, raw gas to ethylene glycol project, etc. Among them, the planned capacity of Malang coal mine is 15 million tons. At present, relevant procedures are still going through in the early stage. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023 and gradually reach the production capacity in 2024. At that time, the overall coal capacity of the company will reach 35 million tons; At present, the turnover capacity of Qidong LNG terminal has reached 3 million tons, and the company’s 5 storage tanks are expected to be completed and put into operation in June 22, when the turnover capacity will reach 5 million tons. In the later stage, the company will add 67 storage tanks, which are expected to be completed and put into operation in 24-25 years, when the total turnover capacity of the company will reach 10 million tons. In addition, the company’s ethylene glycol production project from raw gas generated by the clean coal refining project has started trial operation and is expected to be put into operation gradually in the second quarter of 22 years, contributing profits.
Green energy transformation to write a new chapter
In the context of the dual carbon policy, the company also officially started the pace of transformation to green energy. At present, it is promoting the implementation of carbon dioxide capture, storage and oil displacement (CCUs) project, and will also accelerate the layout of the development of hydrogen energy industry in the future. In terms of hydrogen energy, the company plans to build 537 sets of 1000nm3 / h electrolytic water hydrogen production units, 1801000m3 hydrogen storage tanks (1.6Mpa), 46 automobile hydrogenation stations and 1565 hydrogen fuel heavy trucks. Meanwhile, from 2022 to 2030, the total installed capacity of supporting wind room with photovoltaic new energy power generation is 6.25 million kW (including wind power generation of 5 million KW and photovoltaic power generation of 1.25 million KW), of which the total installed capacity of new energy power generation at the end of the 14th five year plan is 3.2 million kW (wind power of 2.55 million KW and photovoltaic power of 650000 kW); At the end of the 15th five year plan, the total installed capacity of new energy power generation was 3.05 million kW (2.45 million kw of wind power and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) kW of photovoltaic power).
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the long-term development of the company, raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating
Against the background of the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, we raised our profit forecast for 21-23 years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 49 / 91 / 10.4 billion yuan (originally 45 / 60 / 6.5 billion yuan), EPS will be 0.73/1.35/1.54 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 10.0/5.4/4.7x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
International energy prices fluctuated, coal prices fell, and the progress of projects under construction did not meet expectations
