\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event: the company issued an announcement on its operation from January to February 2022. It is estimated that the company will achieve a total operating revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of about 120% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 465 million yuan, an increase of about 130% over the same period last year.
Revenue and performance exceeded expectations, laying the foundation for annual growth. Previously, the market was worried that the high inventory in some areas would affect the dealers’ enthusiasm for payment collection. From the company’s performance from January to February, the company’s growth rate is still bright, dispelling the doubts before the market. The epidemic situation in Hunan is well controlled, and a better payment collection environment is given in January. The smaller provinces in East China, North China and South China are still in a period of rapid growth. The newly recruited dealers also contribute to the payment collection. At the same time, the forward movement of the payment collection rhythm also leads to a higher growth rate than that in the same period. Even if the growth rate slowed down in March (assuming that the proportion of revenue decreased in March of 22 years), the growth rate of 22q1 also has a high growth. In the follow-up, there will be a normal slowdown, but such a high growth still reflects the strong ability of the brand and the high enthusiasm of the channel, laying the foundation for the growth of the whole year. Under the background of steady growth, the distribution of new merchants and market dynamic sales are expected to gradually return to normal.
The drunkard series continues to focus on creating large pieces, and the internal reference leads the brand potential. The focus effect of the company’s drunkard series of large items continues to highlight, and the total proportion of the three items is gradually increasing. It is expected that the total proportion of the three items of transparent clothing, red altar and inheritance will reach 60%. The channel profit of drunkard series is more than 15%, which is superior to other sub high-end competitive products. The refined control stimulates the sales power of dealers. In the process of internal ginseng development, we pay more attention to the quality of dealers, strengthen brand promotion in markets with consumption atmosphere, and recently carry out internal ginseng wine value seminars in Xining, Baotou and other places, which shows that in addition to the traditional market, the consumption of fragrant tulips in new markets is also gradually heating up.
Investment suggestion: internal reference drunkard two wheel drive, the national potential energy rise of Hunan liquor leader, and maintain the “overweight” rating. In 2022, it is expected that the company will still lead the brand potential through internal participation, focus on the large single products of alcoholic series, and realize the occupation of secondary high-end. It is estimated that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 3.419/45.83/5.767 billion, net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 9.39/13.63/1.783 billion and EPS of RMB 2.89/4.19/5.49 in the 21st-23rd year. The current price corresponds to PE of 55.56x/38.30x/29.26x in the 21st-23rd year, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the competition inside and outside the province intensifies, food safety problems, and channel expansion is less than expected
