\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued an announcement on the operation from January to February 2022. It is estimated that the company will achieve a total operating revenue of about 2.45 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 25%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
The dynamic sales in Jiangsu market is better than last year, and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) enjoys the upgrading dividend in Jiangsu Province. Jiangsu Baijiu performance is better in the Spring Festival. Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) as a strong real estate liquor continues to enjoy the bonus of upgrading consumption in the province. In terms of products, V series continues to grow at a high speed and is promoted by preferred dealers in the form of V99 alliance; Sikai’s large single products have grown steadily, and the product life cycle continues to extend after rejuvenation. As consumers pay more attention to brands, folio also has a good performance in the mass price band Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) collection continues to be promoted on 20 / 30, and the higher price changes the previous understanding of the middle and low end of Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand, and plays the role of activating Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand.
Invest in a new capacity of 38000 tons to escort the development of the 14th five year plan. In February this year, the company announced to invest about 9.1 billion yuan to build 38000 tons of raw wine production capacity and supporting facilities. Some investors are worried that large-scale investment may lead to overcapacity. We believe that the rise of the Jiangsu’s economic growth in the past is partly due to the quality of its products that consumers are attracted to. The higher prices of the V series require higher product strength. The brewing of elegant Maotai Baijiu liquor also requires longer storage time. The company’s long-term planning for capacity planning and its gradual investment in five years will not make the cash flow deteriorate significantly.
Equity incentive continues to promote and promote the long-term development of the company. On October 31, 2021, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) launched the share repurchase plan of the company, which is intended to be used to implement the equity incentive plan. At present, the company has completed the stock repurchase for the equity incentive plan. It is expected that the equity incentive work is expected to continue in the future. It is expected that after the incentive continues to be promoted, the internal vitality will be improved and the 10 billion target will be completed ahead of schedule.
Investment suggestion: the company has a good start in 2022, with good payment collection and sound channel inventory. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company in the 21st-23rd year will be 6.487/79.69/9.555 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.66% / 22.84% / 19.91%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.973/24.83/3.011 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.89% / 25.87% / 21.28%, EPS will be 1.57/1.98/2.40 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE in the 21st-23rd year will be 30.53x/24.25x/20.00x. We believe that the company is growing well and maintains the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the national expansion is less than expected, and the high-end process is less than expected
