\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 933 Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) )
The company’s total operating revenue increased by 35. The net operating profit was 760 million yuan.
The popularity of community group buying has declined, superimposed on the company’s strategic adjustment, and the operation quality and efficiency have been significantly improved. From January to February, the company’s revenue increased by about 3% year-on-year, and the same store increased by about 1.6%. The growth rate changed from negative to positive, the operating net profit was 760 million yuan, and the company successfully turned losses into profits. The overall improvement of internal and external environment has brought significant improvement to the company’s performance. In terms of external environment, the popularity of community group buying is declining, and the impact on supermarkets is also gradually weakening. From 2019 to 2021, the growth rate of community group purchase transaction scale decreased from 300% to 60.4%, and the growth rate of per capita consumption decreased from 219% to 29%. In 2021, many small and medium-sized players withdrew one after another, such as Shihui group’s large-scale withdrawal and layoffs, Xingsheng preferred to stop expansion and shut down inefficient group stores, while the willingness of industry giants Ali and JD to invest in community group purchase business was also weakened. In terms of internal environment, in order to meet many challenges of the industry, the company actively promotes channel optimization and technology empowerment. The company focuses on promoting Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) omni-channel integration and coordinated development of home business. During the Spring Festival of 22 years, through the promotion of all categories and all channels, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of more than 15% in sales in the first ten days of new year’s Eve, and the ten day sales of several fresh items reached 10 million yuan. Actively promote the construction of digital operation and digital supply chain, and promote cost reduction, efficiency and operation efficiency. In 21 years, Yonghui technology invested 670 million yuan. Yonghui technology center has completed the establishment of a team of 1000 people. The company’s self-developed full link retail digital system “yhdos” has also been put into use on a large scale in Fuzhou and other places. In this context, the inventory time of the company’s digital benchmark store has been reduced to about 16 days, far exceeding the basic level of the industry, and the operation efficiency has been significantly improved.
The strategic adjustment has achieved initial results, and the company is expected to enter a benign development track. We believe that with the tightening of industry supervision and the accelerated differentiation of industry reshuffle, the explosive growth stage of community group buying has ended, and its impact on the supermarket channel is expected to be further weakened. The company actively adjusts the channel layout, and the impact of the epidemic may be gradually weakened, and the company’s business is expected to achieve a stable recovery. At the same time, under the guidance of the “technology Yonghui” strategy, the company’s technology, supply chain and operation team have jointly promoted the omni-channel digital reform, which has achieved initial results. In the future, with the continuous promotion of the reform, the negative impact of leasing standards and investment income will be weakened, and the company’s profitability is expected to continue to improve and enter the upward channel.
Profit forecast: the company is the leader of supermarkets in China and has a leading advantage in the field of fresh food. The negative effects of community group purchase, epidemic situation and lease standard adjustment are weakened. Superimposed on the company’s strategic adjustment, the company actively responds to the change, and the company’s performance is restored, which is expected to enter a benign development track. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be -39 / 426 / 1189 million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be -0.41/0.04/0.12 yuan and the corresponding PE will be – 9 / 82 / 30 times. However, considering that the company’s business is still in the recovery stage, it is downgraded to “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in China is repeated, the industry competition is intensified, and the strategic adjustment of the company is less than expected.
