\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
The company issued the operation announcement from January to February 2022. The company expects to achieve a total operating income of about 1.4 billion yuan from January to February, with a year-on-year increase of about + 120%, a net profit attributable to the parent of about 465 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about + 130%, and a year-on-year net interest rate attributable to the parent of + 1.4pct.
“A good start” exceeded expectations and showed strong growth potential. According to the previous performance forecast of the company, the company’s revenue in the single quarter of 2021q4 was + 4% year-on-year. It is expected to take the initiative to control goods and adjust channel inventory to help the “good start” of the Spring Festival exceed expectations. The company’s revenue from January to February was about 1.4 billion yuan, up + 120% year-on-year, an increase of 54.3% compared with that of 2021q1 (910 million yuan). We expect that the main reason is that the delivery rhythm at the beginning of 2022 is faster than that of the same period last year, driving the high increase of data from January to February, It is expected that in March, the company may slow down the pace of delivery, control the quantity and support the price, and promote the healthy development of alcoholics.
Internal reference + drunkard two wheel drive, nationalization on the way. Internal reference: positioning high-end, circle marketing + internal reference sales company can promote national development. Since 2019, the company has held a total of about 19 seminars on the value of internal ginseng wine in all provinces of the country, with cultural empowerment superimposed on circle marketing, grasping the core consumers and dealers. At the same time, the internal ginseng sales company model has realized the triple transformation of dealers’ role, quantity and quality and business mechanism, with market visibility and consumer cognition first and based on high-end. The large-scale development of internal ginseng drives the optimization of the company’s product structure and improves profitability. At present, the price of internal ginseng in the province is 810820 yuan. It is expected that with the company’s volume and price regulation, the price is expected to rise, and the benign development is on the way Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : channel thrust comes first, thick accumulation and thin development. Since 2020, we have actively controlled the volume and supported the price, focused on creating large single products, improved the channel thrust of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series products, awakened the memory of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) consumers outside the province, intensively cultivated channels in the province, and increased the volume after sorting out all aspects in 2021. The current playing method and strategy are clear and clear. On the whole, the company currently participates in the drunkard two wheel drive, and the channel operation and marketing play have become a system. At the same time, COFCO has empowered the company in many aspects such as strategy, operation and enterprise endorsement, which can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast: the company’s “good start” exceeded the expectation and raised the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 33.5/49.8/65.2 (formerly 33.5/46.0/6.03 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 83.5% / 48.7% / 30.9%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 23 will be 930/14.8/2.01 billion yuan (formerly 930 / 13.4/1.82 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 90.5% / 58.9% / 35.7%, The current share price corresponds to 56 / 35 / 26 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating and the target price of 225 yuan, corresponding to 36 times of PE in 2023.
Risk tips: the development of nationalization is not as expected, the price of high-end wine fluctuates sharply, the macro-economy is down, and the epidemic situation is at risk.
