\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 050 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the revenue was + 32% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 15%. The performance basically met our expectations. The company released the performance express for 2021, realizing a revenue of 15.971 billion yuan, an increase of 31.9% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 15.0% at the same time. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 4.251 billion yuan, an increase of + 20.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 389 million yuan, an increase of + 50.6%. The profit growth rate was lower than the revenue, which was mainly due to the rise in the price of bulk raw materials such as copper & aluminum, the rise in shipping freight and the decrease in the gold exchange rate against the United States. Benefiting from the structural growth brought by the energy efficiency upgrading of the traditional refrigeration sector and the sales performance of Tesla and other major new energy vehicle customers from January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 3.06 billion yuan from January to February 2022, an increase of about 40% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is about 290 million yuan, an increase of about 30% at the same time. We expect that the shipment of auto parts will continue to grow month on month, the traditional refrigeration will maintain a good growth, and the operating performance of 2022q1 is expected to continue the high growth trend from January to February.
The downstream prosperity of traditional refrigeration is relatively good, the overall growth is stable, some products benefit from energy efficiency upgrading, and the growth rate is faster. China’s demand for air conditioners and other white electricity recovered. 15205 units were sold in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% (including 85.27 million domestic air conditioners, a year-on-year increase of + 6.5%). 1) The sales market share of traditional products such as four-way valves and solenoid valves is still in the forefront of the industry. Under the background of improving energy efficiency standards, the structural performance of electronic expansion valve products is bright; 2) The demand for overseas business of microchannel is strong, but due to the rise of shipping costs, the net profit has declined more. 3) At present, there is still room for Yawei to turn its losses into profits, but Yawei is expected to continue to improve its penetration. We expect that the revenue of traditional refrigeration sector will increase by + 16% year-on-year in 2021 and maintain CAGR = 10% steady growth from 2022 to 2023.
Benefiting from the high growth of sales volume of key customers and the improvement of ASP, the auto zero business maintained a double growth. New energy vehicles have made rapid progress. In the middle of 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars was 3.29 million, with a significant increase of + 180.7% year-on-year; In terms of core customers, Tesla delivered 936000 vehicles in 021, a year-on-year increase of 87.4%, of which the sales of model 3 / y were 500000 vehicles / 410000 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 36.9% / + 414.2%. Other new energy vehicle brands, such as Weilai and Volvo, continued to increase their sales. Heat pump integrated components of mainstream models have gradually become “standard”, driving the improvement of ASP. With the increase of sales of fixed-point models of old customers and the gradual increase of follow-up fixed-point projects, we expect that the auto zero business is expected to increase by nearly 50% in 2022. However, due to the high raw materials, we expect the gross profit margin of auto zero to decline.
Profit forecast and investment rating: affected by bulk price increases and shipping, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 to 1.68 billion yuan (- 170 million yuan), 2.39 billion yuan (- 20 million yuan) and 3.02 billion yuan (- 40 million yuan) respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15%, + 42% and + 26% respectively, corresponding to 37x times, 26x times and 20x times of the current price PE respectively, and the target price of 20.1 yuan, corresponding to 30 times of PE in 22 years, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of household appliances are less than expected, the sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the competition is intensified
