\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 905 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) )
Event: the company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 15.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.98%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.634 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.02%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 5.102 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.54%. According to the performance forecast released by the company on January 27, the net profit returned to parent company in 2021 was between 5.571 billion yuan and 5.832 billion yuan, and the performance growth rate was in line with the expectation.
The peak of project operation has come, and the power generation revenue has increased significantly: the scale of new energy projects of the company in 2021 exceeded expectations. According to the announcement of new installed capacity in 2021 issued by the company, the company achieved 7.28gw of new installed capacity in the whole year, including 5.39gw of wind power and 1.9gw of photovoltaic power; By the end of 2021, the company’s cumulative installed capacity had reached 22.9gw, a year-on-year increase of 47%, including 14.27gw of wind power and 8.41gw of photovoltaic power. The large-scale operation of installed capacity has led to a steady increase in power generation. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s cumulative power generation in 2021 reached 33.069 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 42.52%, including 22.789 billion kwh of wind power, a year-on-year increase of 44.68%; Photovoltaic power generation was 9.499 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 42.91%. The large-scale production of installed capacity and the improvement of power generation are the core driving force for the company’s performance growth. Meanwhile, the company’s equity investment income in 2021 increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, further driving the improvement of performance.
The offshore wind power is put into operation at an accelerated speed, and the performance in 2022 is worth looking forward to: the large-scale operation of offshore wind power at the end of 2021 is expected to bring high-speed growth of performance in 2022. According to the statistics of Polaris power network and other public data, in 2021, the company has announced that the installed capacity of offshore wind power to realize full capacity grid connection will reach 2.8gw, including Yangjiang Shaba phase III, IV and V (1GW), Jiangsu Rudong h6, h10 (0.8gw), Jiangsu Dafeng h8-2 (0.3gw), Yangxi Shaba project (0.3gw) and Yangjiang Shaba phase II (0.4gw), Most of them will be put into operation and connected to the grid in November and December 2021. With subsidies, offshore wind power projects have strong profitability, which is expected to further improve the company’s performance in 2022. At present, most coastal provinces have issued the “14th five year plan” for new energy. Among them, Jiangsu proposes that the target installed capacity of offshore wind power will reach 14gw by the end of 2025, Guangdong will reach 18gw, Shandong will start 10GW of offshore wind power during the “14th five year plan”, and Zhejiang aims to add or start 9.96gw of offshore wind power. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, offshore wind power is still an important development direction. As the leader of offshore wind power in China, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the expansion of offshore wind scale.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 15.54 billion yuan, 23.81 billion yuan and 28.26 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 37.4%, 53.2% and 18.7% respectively, and net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, 7.95 billion yuan and 9.51 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 57.0%, 40.3% and 19.5% respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 8.5 yuan.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the project production progress is not as expected, and the power demand is not as expected.
