\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 549 Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) )
Key investment points
Recently, the price of crude oil has continued to rise, and the profitability of the company's liquefied gas and pentane products has continued to rise
The price of crude oil has hit a recent high of US $100 per barrel. The cost of liquefied gas and pentane products of the company is locked and priced according to the lump sum package of upstream petrochemical tail gas; The price is calculated according to the calorific value of combustible gas, which follows the market and has a positive correlation with the international crude oil price. The annual average price of crude oil in 2020 / 2021 will reach US $43 / 71 / barrel. Assuming that the annual average price of crude oil in 2022 is US $100 / barrel, the corresponding selling price of liquefied gas / pentane in 2022 is expected to reach 7000 yuan / ton and 5500 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin will be increased to 58% and 41% respectively. We estimate that the gross profit of the company's combustible gas in 2021 / 2022 is expected to increase by 35 million yuan and 107 million yuan respectively compared with 2020.
Traditional business is steadily improving: carbon dioxide production capacity is released, and Jieyang project is advancing steadily
According to the previous performance forecast, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 130 million yuan (median) in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 80%. In 2021, the company expanded production in Yueyang, Anhui and Fujian. By the end of 2021, the total production capacity increased from 460000 tons in 2020 to 710000 tons, corresponding to a further increase in sales in 2022. In addition, the company's Jieyang project (including 200000 tons of food grade carbon dioxide, 6000 tons of hydrogen purification and 300000 tons of high clean hydrogen peroxide) has a total investment of 1.5 billion yuan, which is progressing steadily and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2022.
Electronic special gas creates a new growth pole: rare gas is expected to be in large quantities and officially cut into synthetic products
China's electronic special gas market is 15 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 20%, which is mainly used in integrated circuits (accounting for 70%) and other fields. The localization rate of China's electronic specialty gas is about 15%, and there is a wide space for domestic substitution.
The subsidiary of electronic special rare gas was established in 2018, which is a rare electronic special gas production enterprise in China, from gas source to purification, mixing, testing and sales. The company has a professional gas analysis laboratory and independently developed steel cylinder treatment technology. The purification treatment is higher than the average level in China.
1) in 2021, rare gases were sold steadily and obtained relevant certification. A total of 19.38 million yuan of rare gas (krypton, xenon and neon) sales contracts were signed. It is expected that rare gases will be released in 2022.
2) cut into synthetic gas, sign special gas investment contract and settle in Chenzhou Yizhang fluorine chemical industry park. The products include hydrogen chloride, chlorine, high-purity fluorine, hydrogen fluoride, fluorine based mixed gas, hydrogen bromide, VOC standard gas, antimony pentafluoride, chlorine trifluoride, carbonyl fluoride, electronic grade acetylene, deuterium gas and other products. The total investment of the project is 720 million yuan. It is estimated that the annual income after reaching the production capacity is 650 million yuan and the tax is 100 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 130 / 2.1 / 410 million respectively, with a compound growth rate of 78%, corresponding to 75 / 45 / 23 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the production progress of the project is less than expected, and the sales of electronic special gas is less than expected.
