\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company issued an announcement on the operation from January to February 2022. From January to February 2022, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of more than 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%.
Revenue side: a “good start” as scheduled and nationalization is in progress. From January to February, the company expects its revenue to increase by more than 35% year-on-year. The company’s 2021q4 takes the initiative to control goods and accumulate power, making a “good start”. It is expected that the company is expected to continue its strong performance from January to February in March. According to the announcement, the medium and high-end products such as Qinghua Fenjiu series have achieved substantial growth. In recent years, Qinghua Fenjiu has rapidly promoted the nationalization with flavor advantages and excellent quality. Qinghua 20 has performed well in the price band of 400 yuan. In the future, with the comprehensive replacement of old Qinghua 30 in the revival version and the active layout of the price band of 1000 yuan, the Qinghua series is expected to continue to release the growth potential. At the same time, the products The brands of Bofen and Xinghua village are also commendable, and continue to promote the national layout of the company.
Performance side: product structure optimization contributes to high performance growth. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February to increase by more than 50% year-on-year, which is mainly driven by the growth of medium and high-end products represented by Qinghua Fen Liquor, which improves the profitability, and the operating revenue and net profit have reached the best level in history. If the company’s operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February is 7.4/2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% / 50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is + 3.6pct year-on-year, the optimization of product structure is expected to continue to help the company improve its profitability throughout the year.
Nationalization continues to advance, and brand rejuvenation is on the way. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company’s revenue outside the province accounted for 60%. By the end of 2021, the company had more than 1 million controllable key outlets in the national market, which was significantly higher than 850000 in 2020. The nationalization has achieved initial results. In the future, the company will adhere to the product strategy of “grasping blue and white, strengthening waist and stabilizing glass Fen”. Blue and white Fen Wine is expected to drive the growth of other price belt products. Panama Laobaifen and Xinghuacun series products are worth looking forward to, promoting further breakthroughs in markets outside the province. The company’s product layout is clear, the strategy is clear, and the momentum is upward. The brand rejuvenation of “boss Fen” is on the way.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: after slightly adjusting the profit forecast in the early stage, we expect the company to achieve revenue of 21.93/28.69/35.54 billion yuan (originally 219.3/28.36/35.37 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 56.8% / 30.8% / 23.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.49/80.1/10.5 billion yuan (originally 54.9/75.1/9.65 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 78.2% / 45.9% / 31.1%, At present, the price earnings ratio of the stock price corresponding to 20212023 is 61x / 42x / 32x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the market expansion outside the province is less than expected, and the promotion of high-end products is less than expected
