\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 050 Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) )
Event overview. On March 10, 2022, the company released the performance forecast of 2021 and the main operating data from January to February of 22 years. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.971 billion yuan, an increase of 31.88% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.682 billion yuan, an increase of 15.02%. From January to February 2022, the company’s revenue was 3.06 billion yuan, an increase of about 40% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 290 million yuan, an increase of about 30% at the same time.
The performance of 21q4 was in line with expectations, and the performance increased steadily from January to February of 22 years. According to the performance forecast, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 4.251 billion yuan, an increase of 20.89% and a ring increase of 5.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 389 million yuan, an increase of 5.06% and a decrease of 17.19%. The performance month on month growth benefited from: the product structure of refrigeration business was optimized and the growth was stable; The auto zero business benefited from the high prosperity of the downstream new energy vehicle market and its performance grew rapidly. In terms of net interest rate, the company’s 21q4 net interest rate was 9.14%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.54pct and a month on month decrease of 2.46pct. The main reasons for the decrease of the company’s net interest rate are as follows: 1 With the sharp rise of copper and aluminum prices, the price adjustment mechanism of auto zero business has not been improved, and the cost has not been effectively transmitted; 2. The company’s overseas business of 21h1 accounts for 51.74%. Exchange rate fluctuations have an impact on the company’s profit margin. The net interest rate of the company from January to February of the 22nd year was 9.58%, an increase of 0.44pct compared with Q4 of the 21st year. It is expected that the profitability of the company will be further improved in the future with the improvement of the price adjustment mechanism with the main engine plant and the improvement of cost amortization brought by the release of production capacity.
Strong entry into the field of new energy heat management, develop high-quality customers and help high profit growth. The company has deeply bound with well-known electric vehicle manufacturers in North America to achieve mass supply and continue to develop high-quality customers. At present, the company has reached strategic cooperation with GM, Volkswagen, Byd Company Limited(002594) and new forces in China, such as Zero run, Nezha and Xiaomi, and has full orders in hand. In the future, with the increase of single vehicle value of automobile thermal management components and the high growth of new energy vehicle sales, the company’s auto parts business will maintain a high-speed growth trend and significantly improve the company’s profitability.
Technical barrier + cost advantage to build the company’s core competitiveness. The company’s core product electronic expansion valve has high technical barriers. The company is the first global leader to realize the mass production of electronic expansion valve in the field of new energy vehicles, and is in a leading position in the market in terms of process know-how accumulation and product strength. In addition, the growth of downstream customers of the company is determined, and the scale effect is relatively significant. The gross profit margin of the company’s products is maintained at more than 30%, significantly ahead of its peers.
Repurchase demonstrates the confidence of the company. As of February 28, 2022, the company has repurchased 11.388 million shares through centralized bidding, accounting for 0.32% of the company’s total share capital, with a total transaction amount of RMB 258 million, which fully shows the company’s senior management’s confidence in the company’s future development. The purpose of repurchasing is to be used in the follow-up employee stock ownership plan and equity incentive plan to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of employees.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1682 million, RMB 2754 million and RMB 3738 million, increasing by 15.0%, 63.8% and 35.7% at the same time. The current share price corresponds to 37, 22 and 17 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. Considering that the company has significant technical barriers and cost advantages, the leading position of thermal management is stable, and there is high growth space for the auto parts business in the future, maintain the “recommended” rating
Risk tip: the sales volume of terminal new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The RMB appreciated significantly.
