\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
The company took the initiative to increase production capacity and further consolidate its position as the king
The company released the main business data from January to February 2022, with outstanding performance. The company achieved an operating revenue of about 16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 130%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 650%. (1) Demand: since the beginning of the year, benefiting from the high demand for distributed photovoltaic and the “off-season” demand for downstream installed capacity, the prosperity of silicon materials has exceeded expectations. (2) Cost: since the beginning of 2022, the average price of industrial silicon has been about 21300 yuan / ton, down by more than 90% compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, driving the decline of silicon material cost. We raised the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 by 8.221 (+ 2.04) / 16.126 (+ 62.25) / 16.310 (+ 3.851) billion yuan, EPS was 1.83/3.58/3.62 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price was 24.9/12.7/12.6 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The tight balance of silicon materials will continue, and the release of the company’s production capacity will drive the improvement of profits
The supply and demand of silicon material is still in a tight balance, and the increase of production capacity drives the high increase of the company’s profit. (1) Price: Although the global silicon material capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2022, it will take an average of 6 months for the new capacity to reach full production. With the high demand for distributed photovoltaic, the tight balance of silicon material will still be the main theme of the market in 2022, and the price is expected to remain high. (2) Capacity: by the end of 2021, the company’s polysilicon capacity has reached 180000 tons. In 2022, after Leshan phase III and Baotou phase II are put into operation, the company’s production capacity will exceed 230000 tons by the end of 2022. In the future, the global market share of the company’s silicon material sales is expected to gradually increase from nearly 20% in 2021 to more than 30%. With high price and high production capacity, the profit of polysilicon business is expected to maintain strong growth.
The production capacity of battery cells has been continuously improved, and technological iteration has consolidated the leading position of the company
The capacity of battery cells continues to improve, and new technologies are expected to open up new profit points for the company. In 2021, the company’s battery cell capacity will reach 35gw. With the completion and operation of new projects, the company’s battery cell capacity is expected to exceed 50gw in 2022, of which 90% of the capacity is 210 large-size battery cells with better profitability. With the application of TOPCON technology on 210 battery cells and the completion of 1gwtopcon pilot test line at the end of 2021, large-size battery cells are expected to become the main contribution point of the company’s performance under the advantages of technology and capacity.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected; The price fluctuation of raw materials is higher than expected; The price fluctuation of silicon material is higher than expected; Technological advancement was less than expected.
