\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) )
The energy industry continued its high boom, with both volume and price rising, helping to make a good start to the new year. Maintain “buy” rating
The company issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in the first quarter. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 will be 1.96-2.06 billion yuan, an increase of 1.157-1.257 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 144% – 157%; It is estimated that the amount of non recurring profit and loss is small and has little impact on the net profit attributable to the parent company. The coal, natural gas and coal chemical industry continued to boom, and the prices of major products such as coal, LNG, methanol and coal based oil products strengthened. The company’s production work was carried out in an orderly manner, the capacity utilization rate increased steadily, the downstream demand remained strong, and the volume and price rose together, driving the company’s single quarter performance to exceed expectations and optimistic about the company’s annual performance. We maintain the profit forecast for 2021 and raise the profit forecast for 20222023. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212023 is expected to be RMB 5.001/92.69/116.39 (the previous value is RMB 5.01/62.75/79.75) billion, with a year-on-year increase of 274.3% / 85.3% / 25.6%; EPS is expected to be 0.76/1.41/1.77 yuan (the previous value is 0.76/0.96/1.21); Based on the latest closing price, the corresponding PE is 9.8 times / 5.3 times / 4.2 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The volume and price of main business products rose simultaneously, and the performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations
Driven by the mismatch between supply and demand, cost support and the regulation of policies related to “double control” and “double carbon” of energy consumption, the coal price is running on the high side. Affected by the tense international geopolitical situation, Europe, the United States and other countries have adopted a number of sanctions against Russia, the global energy supply and demand pattern has changed, and overseas energy prices have continued to rise. Since 2022, China’s economy has been “stable” and downstream demand has remained strong. All production activities of the company were carried out in an orderly manner, and the capacity utilization rate increased steadily. In this context, the production and marketing of the company’s main products are booming, and the volume and price rise together, resulting in better than expected performance. Natural gas sector: the company’s LNG sales from January to February increased by about 10% year-on-year, of which Qidong LNG sales increased by 17% year-on-year; In March, the average selling price of LNG market in different gas sources increased by about 77-171% year-on-year and 28-30% month on month. By signing the large long-term association (10 years) + small long-term association (2-3 years), the company locks in natural gas far lower than the international market price. When the price of overseas natural gas broke through a record high, the company flexibly adjusted its business strategy and brought high profits to the sea entrepot trade. Coal sector: from January to February, the sales volume outside China increased by about 17% year-on-year; The sales price of the company’s coal market in each segment increased by about 47-164% year-on-year in March, which was basically the same month on month. Coal chemical industry: methanol: from January to February, the sales volume decreased by about 6% year-on-year, but the average sales price in the Chinese market increased by + 12.82% year-on-year, effectively offsetting the impact of the slight decline in sales volume, and the overall profit increased; In March, the average sales price of methanol in China increased by about 49% year-on-year and 19% month on month. Coal based oil products: as the soaring oil price drives the continuous rise of China’s refined oil price, coal tar is favored for its substitutability, and the demand increases rapidly. From January to February, the sales volume increased by about 29% year-on-year, and the average sales price of coal tar Market in Xinjiang increased by + 78.26% year-on-year; In March, the average sales price of coal based oil products increased by about 118% year-on-year and 30% month on month.
The growth of each sector can be expected, and the capacity expansion will be realized gradually
Coal sector: the production capacity of baishihu mining area has increased from 8 million tons to 25 million tons, the exploration certificate of Malang coal mine has been obtained, and 15 million tons of production capacity will be built during the 14th Five Year Plan period; LNG trade sector: the current turnover is 3 million tons. The fourth phase of the project will be completed and put into operation in August 2022, and the turnover capacity is expected to reach 5 million tons, which will be expanded to 10 million tons during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Coal chemical industry: 400000 tons of ethylene glycol has been put into trial production and is expected to be fully put into operation in the second half of 2022.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Energy prices fell sharply; The progress of new capacity lags behind expectations
