\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company issued an announcement on the operation from January to February 2022. It is estimated that the company will achieve a total operating revenue of more than 7.4 billion yuan from January to February 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was more than 2.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
Fearless of the impact of the epidemic, income maintained a high growth, and the net interest rate increased significantly under the large amount of blue and white flowers. From January to February in 22, sporadic outbreaks recurred in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and other places, but it is not easy for the company to achieve more than 35% revenue growth. Due to the company’s increased investment in the revival version and the large-scale growth of Qinghua 20, the product structure has improved significantly. According to our split estimation of the revenue of each product, it is expected that the proportion of Qinghua series will increase, the overall proportion of Qinghua series will reach about 40%, and the proportion of Bofen will decrease. At the same time, due to the reduction of the cost of Qinghua 20 after the second half of 21 years, It also contributed to the improvement of net interest rate.
Blue and white series continue to enhance brand strength and move towards 10 billion in a down-to-earth manner. This year is the third year of the revival version. With the foreshadowing, it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in sales this year. Although the wholesale price of Fuxing version fluctuates slightly during the peak Spring Festival season, the current wholesale price has rebounded. In the off-season, there will be more energy to cultivate the market and continue to be optimistic that Fuxing version will become another important brand in the 1000 yuan price belt. Green 20 card slot sub high-end mainstream price belt, with more than 50% growth in many places, promoting the blue and white series to move forward to 10 billion single products.
Clear capacity planning to help long-term development. Although Qingxiang Baijiu has a short brewing cycle, the volume of sales across the country has increased, making the capacity of the company reach a tight balance. At present, the construction of Fenyang 50000 ton project (including 5000 tons of Fenjiu) has been started, and the 2030 technical transformation project with a production capacity of 100000 tons of original wine is also being implemented. It is expected that plants 1-4 of the 2030 technical transformation project will take the lead in the construction, with an annual output of 1.25/1/0.510000 tons of original wine respectively, helping the development of the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan.
The national reform dividend continued to be released, the nationalization and high-end were progressing smoothly, and the “overweight” rating was maintained. The company’s performance from January to February of the 22nd year is bright and the growth momentum is good. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue in the 21st to 23rd years will be 20.375/27.40/33.885 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.502/78.20/10.231 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 4.51/6.41/8.39 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 63.67/44.80/34.24, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the national expansion is less than expected, and the high-end process is less than expected
