\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 05 Hunan Jiudian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300705) )
Key investment points
Event: according to the company announcement, the core product of the company, the drug of Luo Luo Luo Feng Ling gel, was selected in the Guangdong Union area, winning the bid price of 181875 yuan / piece, the price fell 25%, in line with the expected. The number of candidates to be selected is 1445851, and the provinces to be supplied are Guangdong, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps.
Winning the bid for centralized procurement will reduce the threshold for entering the hospital and directly enter the drug catalogue of undeveloped hospitals, which will contribute to the rapid improvement of product channel penetration. According to the rules, the company will get 100% of the agreed purchase volume in the first year and supply 10 provinces in the alliance area. The sales volume of the company’s products in the alliance area is not large, and the hospitals in the alliance area have less developed hospitals, which reduces the entry threshold, reduces the cost of hospital development, directly enters the drug list of some hospitals, and relieves the limitation of prescriptions of medical institutions. Quickly improve the channel penetration of products.
The equity incentive plan has been launched to highlight the development expectations for the next few years. The company has recently launched the equity incentive plan. The performance evaluation goal is: Taking the net profit in 2021 as the base, the growth rate of deducting non net profit in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is not less than 30%, 55% and 75% respectively. The performance evaluation goal is set reasonably, and the equity incentive fee is excluded, which shows the company’s confidence in the development of the next few years. At the same time, the performance growth incentive target from 2023 to 2024 is relatively stable, indicating that the company has fully considered the risk factors brought by possible changes in the market environment in the next few years, and reserved space for the next round of equity incentive.
The layout of chain drugstore channels will be started in 2022, which will help reduce the risk of single channel and improve the consumption attributes of products. At present, the company’s products are mainly sold through hospital channels. The chain drugstore channel will be laid in 2022. The new channel is conducive to reducing the risk of a single channel. In terms of payment method, based on the overall medical insurance payment in the original hospital, the personal medical insurance account or self payment in the channel of chain drugstores will be increased, the payment structure will be richer and the consumption attribute of products will be improved. At the same time, due to the improvement of product brand strength, the sales expense rate of chain channels is expected to be reduced, and the net interest rate of products in this channel has room for improvement, which will contribute to the marginal increment of the overall net interest rate of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is expected to achieve revenue of 2.203 billion yuan and 2.896 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2023, and net profit attributable to parent company of 281 million yuan and 383 million yuan respectively. Considering that the company has abundant paste products and oral solid preparation pipelines, and the products are still in a large-scale cycle, equity incentive shows the company’s development confidence and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: product sales growth is less than expected; Risk of a new round of centralized purchase price reduction; The progress of new product research and development is less than expected.
